Problems from the Reno Nationals: Answers

aka, what's 5NT and what do you do now?

Today's Panelists: Barry Rigal, Rolf Kühn, Walter Hamilton, Chris Willenken, Mike Shuster, Lynn (and Dale) Johannsen, Bob Thomson, Andy Lewis

IMPs, not vul,

AQx
x
AK9x
A1098x

98xx
AQx
Jx
Kxxx

After telling the opponents declarer's shape and number of aces, kings, and queens, and that he has 1-3 Jacks, you arrive in 6. Opening lead is the J. Plan the play.

BARRY
I would take the king and lead to the ace, expecting to drop the QJ in West. If I have a club loser I see no choice but to finesse in both majors.
ROLF
J - hmmm who are the opponents? Ok, A, -finesse, finesse and thinking about the . As I would not have guessed the s anyway with 50% probability I guess I play on 2-2.
WALTER
If clubs are 2-2 take the spade finesse. If clubs are 1-3 draw trumps, lead the J (the hope is the Q10 are on side or RHO has the 10 third.) If this doesn't pan out you need both major suit kings onside.
CHRIS
Perhaps there is something better than 2-2 trump and one of 2 finesses (in the majors), but I don't see it. I would not play LHO to lead from QJx, and stiff J looks relatively unlikely.
LYNN
Dale's experience suggests that the lead indicates LHO has QJ tight [I was sure that was what was going on, too. --Jeff]; thus, he recommends winning the A, leading to the K, and taking a spade finesse. If it wins, play A, low spade. If it loses, take the heart hook.
If trumps aren't 2-2, you need a lot more favorable holdings elsewhere, so this line at least seems simplest to me (Lynn).
BOB
For starters, I think opening leader has QJ doubleton of clubs. My second choice is Jx doubleton, so I'll play for the drop. I guess I'll win the King in hand just in case it's QJxx <grin>. After that, I don't think any squeeze or endplay is as good as 75%, so I'm just going to take both major suit finesses.
ANDY
I'll play 2 rounds of trump, ruff out hearts and ruff 1 diamond leaving AQx - 9 8 opposite 98xx - - x, and then run the 8 of spades. With lots of luck, trumps split and I get 2 spades.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
try for 2-2 trumps or either major suit finesse, but wanted to switch gears at trick three, once I realized I'd blown it.
WINNING ACTION
either win the K and hook a club or win the K, cash the diamonds and ruff a diamond, cross to the A, ruff a diamond, spade hook, spade ace, exit trump.

AQx
x
AK9x
A1098x

KJ
Kxxx
Q10xx
QJx 10xxx
J10xxx
xxx
x

98xx
AQx
Jx
Kxxx

JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Seems to me that cashing high trumps is sensible; everyone thinks that the opening lead is from QJ tight. I don't see how it can hurt to ruff a diamond before taking the spade finesse. When that wins, the J should be a clue, so ruff the last diamond and play another spade. Table feel should tell you whether the spade honors are true cards or not. The lead should help. Why such a dangerous lead? Partner could have the stiff trump king; it's not as if the auction was any good. I think the lead suggests that West didn't have any safe suit to lead, so the heart hook is probably off---that means the endplay is as good a chance as any. I'm sad to say that I blew it.
Upon further reflection...I'd bet that the opening leader has the Q. He heard an auction indicating a likely 5-4 club fit. Since dummy didn't know which king partner had, presumably dummy has the K, and probably AK. That means that the clubs are quite likely to be in the box, so a lead to fool them might be best. Maybe I should have got trumps right.
I am not sure if there's a line better than two hooks if RHO started with three trumps. I've not considered it fully.
COST
just a swiss match.
IMPs, favorable, you hold
Ax xx K109x QJ9xx

LHO CHO RHO You

1 2* 3 ?

2 shows 4+ spades and 5+ diamonds, 7 or fewer AKQ losers.

BARRY
5. It could be right to stop in 4, but why not bid what you hope you can make. Partner rates to have one useful distributional feature (a stiff heart or club) I think. [Less often hearts; he might make a takeout double with three clubs instead. --Jeff] So game should have play or be a good save unless there are wasted values in spades opposite.
ROLF
I bid 5 - A few good things can happen:
a) It might make,
b) it might be a good save,
c) opps might sacrifice.
4 might be a winner but I am too afraid of a bad trump break.
WALTER
Shrug. 5.
CHRIS
4. Right on total trumps and values. If they continue to 4, partner is invited to save with the right hand. I have too much defense to bid 5 unilaterally.
MIKE
4. At this paint, partner may well only have a 4-shooter in spades, but he is most likely 5251 exacly, so I'll bid 4 and if the opponents press on with 4, I'll defend, although my instinct says to double, they have too many trumps to do so. I like bidding 4 a little more because it gives partner a chance to bid 4 still with an appropriate hand...[Agreed vehemently. If partner has KQJxx xx AQxxx x, he will bid 4 on the way to 5, which you will pass happily. --Jeff]
LYNN
Not a good method for applying the LOTT. Opposite a 4-2-5-2 minimum, we can't make anything much and, probably, neither can they. I assume that partner will bid again with extra shape if I bid 4 now, so that's my best guess. [Yes, he will. 4 invites partner to bid over 4 or you would have shut up. --Jeff]
BOB
5. This can't be going for much and I'd like to tempt my lho into bidding 5 and going minus. I assume that 4 here would invite partner to save with extra playing strength, but my hand doesn't need that.
ANDY
5. Par might be 4 making, but since I don't know who's making what, I'll just take a shot at game.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
4
CONSENSUS
none: 5 for 5; 4 for 4
WINNING ACTION
Pass. If you bid 4, partner will bid 5 over 4 and go for 300. If you bid 5 directly, you will be nailed by a Looby double. Everyone at the table will think you are making it, but they know they are not making 5 or even coming real close, so they have to leave it in.

QJ10x
xx
A8xxxx
10

K9xx
AQxxx
Q
Axx 8xx
KJxx
Jx
Kxxx

Ax
xx
K109x
QJ9xx

JEFF UPON REFLECTION
4 again. Next time, partner will have Kxxx x Axxxxx Kx and 5 will be cold. At this vulnerability, 5 is precipitous; our clubs are defense, not offense. The big bonus of partner's bidding 4 on the way is so important that I can't go past 4 now.
COST
4 IMPs, about 1-2 VPs. Not much.
IMPs, both vul, you hold
AKQ1065 A1042 J 75
Unbelievably, the auction goes:

CHO RHO You LHO

1 1 Pass Pass

Dbl Pass Pass Pass

I think this is the best trump holding I've ever had on defense against a doubled contract.
What do you lead?

BARRY
A. I do not know how likely partner is to have a trump, but if he has one then this is going to be a big number whatever I do, and if he does not then the sight of dummy may well persuade me to lead clubs not diamonds. A lot depends on whether pard. would reopen with x on a 0454 11 count. I would; I assume he would too. [I would. --Jeff]
ROLF
J seems the natural lead: partner's suit I need to ruff to avoid getting endplayed.
WALTER
J. Are spades 6511 or did partner double with a void? In either case the J may reach partner and at least will start the process of shortening your trump suit if necessary.
CHRIS
J. Anything could be right, but I can't see why I should lead something else. A spade could remove partner's singleton, making it impossible to lead through declarer. [It does. --Jeff] The dangers of a heart lead are obvious. [They are? --Jeff] I can't see why I should be leading clubs over diamonds.
MIKE
I'm not leading a spade; I want partner to lead one if he has one. Presumably declarer has diamonds behind partner, so a diamond lead would be doing his work for him. A heart is silly, so I lead a club.
LYNN
Q--to look at dummy and to tell partner what is going on. Perhaps I'll have a better idea of the best defensive plan after trick 1. [Partner plays the J. Queen lead asks for unblock of the Jack or count, right? --Jeff]
BOB
Q I suppose it might be nice to have partner lead the first trump, but he may not have one and I'd really like to take a look at dummy before I decide what side suit to break. If I drop partner's stiff Jack of trumps, so be it. [Nice prophesy. --Jeff]
ANDY
J. Partner's suit.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
J
CONSENSUS
5 J, 2 Q, 2 A, 1.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Next time, I'm leading the A. Partner rates to have heart length (takeout double, right?) so RHO almost certainly doesn't have Kx. That means the lead is safe. Moreover, we don't want ruffs---we want to tap declarer a few times and draw trumps. It'd be best if we could get partner in to cash a few winners and shift to trumps, but how can we do that? Leading the diamond will make partner try to tap us. Therefore, lead the A first and if it seems right to shift to a diamond, partner will play trumps instead of diamonds when you do.
WINNING ACTION
small spade or small heart is best; A, heart is next best. Partner has J KQ9x AQxxx Qxx.
COST
nearly nothing, except the story that goes with sticks and wheels.
IMPs, both vul, you hold
KQJ109x x J AKJxx

You Partner

1 2

3 3

4 5NT

?

a) do you agree with your bidding so far?
b) what's 5NT?
c) what now?
BARRY
6. If I am being offered a choice of slams (likely since no 4 bid by partner at the last turn) how can spades be wrong? (a) fine. (b). choice of slams. (c) 6.
ROLF
a) sure. b) Josephine, what else? Partner probably has a -void. c) 7 seems obvious. Partner probably has a void which is not so good. On the other hand he might have Q and the stiff A. I have nothing to judge. I was just asked for top honors.
WALTER
1. yes
2. maybe Blackwood. If it was GSF partner could have bid it instead of 3. If partner does not think 4N is Keycard then 5N might be the only substitute.
3. no clue. I have a 4 loser hand. I won't settle for 6 clubs and don't know what partner's bid means. Therefore I chose 6 showing 2 keycards in clubs or 2 of the top three clubs or total confusion.
CHRIS
6. My preference is to play that 5N asks partner to pick a slam whenever that interpretation is remotely reasonable, as here. Diamonds are out as no 4 continuation by partner. Hard to imagine 6 being appreciably better than 6, and it could be much worse if pard is Ax,Axx,AKxxx,xxx or the like.
MIKE
1. I don't know if I agree with partner's bidding... Mine seems ok, although I'd've liked to rebid my spades at some point.
2. GSF in clubs.
3. 7. If partner has a spade void rather than the ace, 7 would be too high.
LYNN
I might prefer 3 over 3, to be followed by 4 over 3nt, but the auction might not work out that way, so 4 is probably right.
The meaning of 5NT depends on what 4NT would have meant. In our methods, 4NT would be a natural signoff, so 5NT must be the GSF. [Not in mine. I would have bid 4NT natural last time if I wanted to play there. --Jeff]
If 4NT would be Keycard, as most (I guess) would play, 5NT probably means pick a slam. [There are two other combinations...partner picked one of them --Jeff]
Assuming 4NT would have been keycard, it seems clear to bid 6 now. If not, it seems clear to bid 7 now. At least 6 will get you to 7 when partner wanted to bid GSF--you couldn't afford to bid beyond 6 without either red ace and without the AK of clubs.
WTP? As long as you and partner have good agreements....[OK, everyone who has a clear agreement here, raise their hands! Anyone? Yes, Jeff, yes, Eric, I know you do. Anyone else? --Jeff]
BOB
1. Yes, I agree with the bidding so far.
2. I think 5NT is grand slam force in clubs. Partner could bid 4 and then 5NT to offer a choice of slams.
3. 7. Rather forced by my answer to part b, eh?
ANDY
1. I think I'd bid 3 instead of 4. I'm willing to play spades opposite a stiff, and this also might give me the opportunity to pull 3N to 4.
2. I don't know. What's your agreement? [Sorry, I asked first. --Jeff]
3. 6. If partner wanted me to pick a slam I've picked one, and if it was grand slam force in clubs, partner can convert after puzzling it over for a while.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
6. I didn't know if 5NT was pick a slam or GSF. I figured 6 would cater to either. Partner got me back, bidding 6NT. I judged that this meant that 5NT was pick a slam, so I passed.
CONSENSUS
1. Most agree.
2. GSF: 3
  Pick-a-slam: 2
  Neither: 1
  Dunno: 2
3. 6: 5
  7: 3
  6: 1
WINNING ACTION
7 and solve the play problem or 6 and claim. Partner has --- A10xx AKQxx Qxxx.
There are two lines that seem good in the grand.
1. Draw trumps. If they are 2-2, test diamonds. If they are 4-3, claim. Otherwise, take the spade finesse after ruffing one round if possible. This looks like about 65%.
2. A full cross-ruff. Play for three diamonds, one heart, and nine trump tricks. This requires 4-3 diamonds and a little luck, which starts around 58%. If, however, diamonds are short on your right, you can overruff and change tacks to the spade finesse. This looks like it's around 74% or so.
In real life, line 2 works, but line 1 does not. Trumps are 3-1, the A is off, but diamonds are 4-3, and the pointed suits break well enough that the crossruff succeeds.
A trump lead would beat 7 as the cards lay.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
This is yet another example of how failing to set trumps before embarking on a slam auction leads to disaster. Partner should have bid 4 on the previous round, then would have been able to bid 5NT as a clear GSF on this round. There would have been no confusion. ...or just bid 5NT last time.
Is 5NT GSF or pick? If GSF, partner could have bid 5NT last time or 4 last time. But my 4 bid may have made partner sure about clubs. At the other table, partner's counterpart just bid 5NT over 3. (The agreements about 3 were the same: either 5-5 non-garbage, or 5-4 with substantial extra values.) Upon reflection, I think 5NT should be pick, but I'm not convinced. Those who have simple rules have no problem. Those who try to figure it out each time get disasters like this
COST
17 IMPs. 6 VPs. Just enough to Q for the 2nd day of the swiss.
IMPs, both vul, you hold
KQ109xxx xx xx xx

LHO CHO RHO You

1 Pass 1 ?

BARRY
3. Max pressure, minimum penalty. No one doubles this for penalty anymore - do they - except by accident.
ROLF
Hm, bad distribution good suit. At worst I will go for 800 in 2 so I just bid that.
WALTER
2. I don't like 7222 with partner unable to bid over 1. 1 may fool the oponents into thinking you are stronger.
CHRIS
2. 3 is lunacy. 1 or pass might work OK, but usually straightforward is best.
MIKE
2. Right at the colors.
LYNN
I vote for 2. 7-2-2-2 is the wrong shape to suggest a save, the opponents have already found their fit, probably, so you have less to gain by preeempting high. Dale votes for 3 because that's the normal number with seven trumps. We both think pass is silly. 4 virtually forces them to X--and that is probably NOT what you want.
BOB
2. For two reasons: My hand is so bad offensively that I don't want to risk a large number and it's so bad defensively that I don't want to goad them into slam. I'd like to leave the opponents room to exchange gentle slam tries before subsiding reluctantly in game for fear of bad breaks.
ANDY
2. It's ok to have an extra trump to make up for all the times when I didn't have enough.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
2
CONSENSUS
2. Just about everyone chose that.
WINNING ACTION
3. Partner has Jxx and a side AK, A. My counterpart bid 3 and his partner raised to 4 over 4. I bid only 2 and defended. 4 was -620; 4 was -200. 4 was cold, although tough defense by partner would have made the play a little bit tricky.
COST
9 IMPs. 3 VPs.
IMPs, both vul, you hold
xx xx AQ10xx J10xx

CHO RHO You LHO

1 1 2 Pass

2 3 Pass 4

Pass Pass ?

a) do you agree with your bidding so far?
b) what now?
c) if you pass or double, what do you lead?
BARRY
No - I would have bid 4 on my previous turn 4NT; minors. clear to bid on now with extra shape and likely heart singleton opposite. I won't pass, but if I did I'd lead a spade I suppose.
ROLF
1. A weak NT make things easier here...but yes.
2. Double. This does not look like anybody could XX and the bidding is weird.
3. if you pass or double, what do you lead? Trump. We won't get many -tricks after this bidding.
WALTER
1. yes
2. What happened to the spade suit? Could LHO not show spades after 2? If LHO dosn't have spades then RHO rates to be 47?? or possible 46?? with solid hearts and good spades. If RHO has 4 spades my chances of taking 2 tricks is diminished. I either pass or bid 5. I don't double. Best guess pass.
3. J
CHRIS
I agree with the bidding thus far, and I would bid 5 now. Partner didn't double, and both contracts could be makers opposite AQ xx KJx AKxxxx. For his pass of 4, he probably either has six clubs or five with a singleton heart. In either case, there are 19+ trumps, so it can't hurt too much to bid one more.
MIKE
1. No. The fit 3 bid would be a bit much on this hand on the first round, but I'd bid 4 at my second turn.
2. Partner has an unbalanced hand and so there is no reason to think diamonds will play better than clubs, so I bid 5. 4NT is acceptible, pass is not.
LYNN
I usually don't like your characterization of partner as CHO, but it may be apt on this hand. I'm having trouble figuring out what he had to bid 2--some other bid would probably have been much more helpful. The best I can come up with is Ax xx Kx AKQxxxx--but he should bid 5 over 4 with that, not wait for me to do it. [It seems to be that the initial cue bid by opener in competition is almost always a disaster action. Does anyone have any ideas about clarifying it? --Jeff]
I don't think it can be right to defend undoubled. Since partner didn't bid spades, the opponents have a double fit and so do we. I'll bid 5, even though I still think it was partner's job to do it.
If I decided to defend, I'd X (same reasoning--it can't be right to defend undoubled). Then it's probably right to lead spades, hoping for a ruff to beat it. We can't really have four cashing tricks in the minors on this auction.
BOB
1. No. I would have bid 4 over 3 to tell partner that I have some extras.
2. 5. There seem to be too many high cards in this deck. It sounds like partner was looking for 3NT with a good long club suit. This might even be a double game swing hand. If this is a disaster, I'm blaming the player in my chair who passed over 3
3. A club. I see that my predecessor kept the hand for the entire auction, then turned the opening lead over to me.
ANDY
a) My bidding so far seems fine. b) double c) trump.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
double and lead trump
CONSENSUS
1. No, 4: 2
  No, 4: 1
  Yes: 4
2. 4NT: 1
  Double: 3
  Pass: 1
  5: 4
3. : 3
  : 2
  : 2
WINNING ACTION
5. Partner has AKx Q10 KJxx AQxxx.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
To tell the truth, I think I'd've doubled 4 with partner's hand in front of me, leading to the same bad result I got. When partner didn't double and didn't bid 5, what kind of hand should he have? He doesn't have a big balanced hand with no heart stopper (he'd double) and he doesn't have a long club suit and a good hand without a heart stopper (he'd bid 5). Given that, I have no idea what he has. After long reflection, I think it's an impossible problem. I'm not all that keen on bidding on---2-2 in the majors is a lot of losers for partner to cover---we know that we are starting with two heart losers. How are we going to make 5? But when in doubt in these situations, it's usually best to bid on.
COST
21 IMPs. 8 VPs. Enough to Q for the 2nd day of the Swiss.
IMPs, vul, you hold
Kxx AJ7xxx x 109x

Partner You

1 1

2 3

4 ?

BARRY
Pass. I have a little extra but no club control and if partner does he has a 4-2-5-2 shape and how good can slam be? ( AQxx KQ KQxxx AJ)
[After seeing partner's hand,] partner should bid 4 over 3 - he is worth it in my opinion. 4 is wet.
ROLF
Pass, with -single I would proceed.
WALTER
4
CHRIS
Pass. And quickly; partner could have continued with 4 if he had a great hand for hearts. I could go down at the four level opposite AQJx Qx AKQxx Kx.
Here, by the way, 4 is a good raise to 4. There are a whole bunch of sequences where this treatment is useful. Generally, the raiser has bid two suits, his partner has bid one suit, no suit has been raised, and a natural raise below game is not available. E.g. 1-2-3-3- 4 should be a good heart raise. Similarly, 1-2-2-3-3- 4, assuming that the 2 rebid doesn't promise extra length. On these types of sequences, you sometimes need to raise with a small singleton trump, and the other hand can rarely move if you don't distinguish good trump support from a mere choice of contracts.
MIKE
3 bid was probably an error, since it ambiguates partners 4 call. If he really is 4351 or 3361 or 4360 we should have excellent play for a slam. If he is 4252 then no. I'll risk the five-level via 4 because of my 6th heart. I'd've bid 3 over 2, to give partner room, although it is easy to see how that might work out poorly. [For example if partner bids 3NT, his most likely call? --Jeff]
LYNN
In our methods, 4 by partner would show real hearts, and 4 would probably be bid on something like Qx and no club stopper. With that agreement, it seems clear to pass--we'll have many tricks eventually, but they will have 2 first and could easily have 3.
Failing that agreement, it's closer. Partner could hold the right cards, but we could also be in jeopardy at 5. We pass, with no guaranty. If we bid, 4 would be clear. It might give partner the option of passing in a makeable contract with the wrong hand.
BOB
4. My hand has just become a lot better. Perhaps partner would like to know that I have a spade card.
ANDY
4. It looks like slam is worth a shot unless partner faked a reverse on some good 2362 hand, or some such thing.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
pass.
CONSENSUS
4: 4
Pass: 5
WINNING ACTION
Anything but pass. Partner has AJxx KQx AKxxx Q
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Chris' system point (also noted by Barry and Lynn) was new to me. It also makes the hand a non-problem; pass is automatic.
COST
13 IMPs. 4 VPs. With #5, enough to Q for the 2nd day of the swiss.
IMPs, vul, you hold
--- AJ7xxx x KQ108xx

Partner You

1 2

3 4

4 ?

3 is old-fashioned standard, 16+ with a decent 6+ card suit.
a) do you agree with 4?
b) what now?
BARRY
4 is OK - a lot depends on partnership style. BWS is probably to play it as ambiguous. Pass- I hate it but I expect that though it is not our best possible spot it IS our best spot possible.
ROLF
Pass, I am conservative in misfit situations.
WALTER
Knew the hand.
CHRIS
Pass. 4 looks forced. Now we know that partner has a self-sufficient suit, and odds are that he has a few diamonds. My hand may be waste paper.
MIKE
1. Sure.
2. haven't I done enough?
LYNN
4 is fine if it's natural. We play that it isn't, and would have to bid 4.
What to bid now depends on other agreements. If 4 would have meant extra values with a solid suit, I think 5 is right here. Then we would show a gain for 4 natural.
Still, partner could have bid 4 with doubt about strain. If I think partner would have thought of that, it seems right to pass now.
Lynn bids 5 in the absence of any agreements, and Dale passes. (He has more faith in partner than I do--but then, he usually plays with me )
BOB
1. Yes. What else would you bid but 4?
2. Pass. Partner surely would have bid 4 if hearts were the right strain. Clubs might be right, but partner has bid spades three times and shown strength, so why should you assume that you're going minus in four spades? You might still have a club slam, but I judge that moving over four spades is more likely to create a minus score than to find a slam.
ANDY
1. yes
2. Pass. ugh.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
5
CONSENSUS
everyone passes
WINNING ACTION
Pass. Partner has AKQJxx x Q10xx A9
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
I think Barry put it best: I don't think 4 is the best spot, but it might be the best spot we can reach at this point. With most partners, I play that 4 is a cue bid in support of spades. On this hand, that'd be a nightmare.
COST
10 IMPs. 4 VPs. A little face.
IMPs, unfavorable, you hold
KQ9x x AKQ65 AJ9
RHO opens 3. Over to you.
BARRY
3NT. So sue me!
ROLF
So the choice is between 3NT and a fast pass. I do not see where to make 9 tricks. I hope I passed fast enough.
WALTER
Knew the hand.
CHRIS
Pass. 3N could be a winner, but
1. partner may well have no diamonds and get overly excited
  [Should he? You have lots of working values if he does. --Jeff]
2. partner may erroneously remove 3N to 4 based on a diamond void
  [Yes, and that could get killed. --Jeff]
3. partner may reopen with a double if I pass
  [Dream on, but I had AKQ10xx on another hand...--Jeff]
4. Partner will balance on many of the hands where we can make a game
  [Almost surely not. If you pass, you will play it here. --Jeff]
MIKE
3NT. What else? 3 is for Marshall Miles and Double is a loser. Sure, partner rates to have spades, but not enough to raise (bid 4 myself??) and why can't partner have a couple of heart stoppers anyway?
LYNN
At other vulnerabilities, P seems clear. At this vulnerability, I think you have to try 3NT.
BOB
3NT. There are too many hands where 3N makes but partner does not balance over 3. At matchpoints I might overcall 3 since a spade fit, if it exists, rates to make more tricks than notrump.
ANDY
3N. Hamman's rule.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
wasn't there. My opponent passed.
CONSENSUS
Pass: 2
3NT: 5
WINNING ACTION
Pass. Partner has 7xxx Q10xxxx x Kx and may bid 4. That gets doubled for 500 or 800. If he passes, it's still -200.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
At first I thought it was just obvious to bid 3NT, but later reflection suggests that this hand is not as good as it might be. Problem is, if I pass, I'm defending 3; partner is not in the picture. +150 just doesn't rate to be all that good. It's close. I'd bid 3NT if I were there. And ask questions later.
COST
16 IMPs. A KO match. 45 MPs.
Matchpoints, you hold
Kxx Qxx Qxxx A109

Partner You

1 1NT (forcing)

2 ?

You have the options to show a good 3-card limit raise (via 2) or a bad 3-card limit raise (3 direct); 2 would be artificial. Of course, you can do anything else as well.

BARRY
3. Min Invitational three card raise - what do you want from my life? One of my queens is wasted I expect. If 3NT is right partner will bid it - won't he?
ROLF, WALTER, MIKE
3.
CHRIS
3. This is a bad limit raise. No ruffing value and suspect queens. Give me some spots in the reds (QTx Q9xx) and I would try 2N. [Me too. I think it's really close without them...but no one else does. --Jeff]
LYNN
3. A bad limit raise seems about right. What we really want to do is offer a choice between spades and NT. If we can do that by starting with 2, change our vote.
BOB
2, intending to show the good 3-card limit raise. The club spots are likely to be helpful opposite partner's 3+ cards in the suit. If we play a light opening style I show the bad 3-card limit raise instead.
ANDY
A bad 3-card limit raise. It certainly isn't a good 3-card limit raise, it's a round too late to make a single raise, and I'm not about to bid NT again without either suit really stopped, so I don't see any reasonable alternative.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
3, very reluctantly. I wanted to bid 2NT. I knew 2NT was right. If, however, it turned out wrong, I'd never hear the end of my "hand-hogging" ways. So I wimped out.
CONSENSUS
Almost everyone bid 3 (bad limit raise).
WINNING ACTION
2NT (or 3NT) Partner has AQJxx J10x Jx QJx and the club finesse is on.
COST
About half a board in a pointless regional.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
With some partners, I play that the 2 gadget can split the range of the 3-card limit raise. This is an Ed Davis tinker, but I think a better way to split the two is to play that one shows strong NT interest and the other mild NT interest. I'm going to try to convert my partners. Ed's not buying, but others might.
The bidding problem turned out to be a non-problem; everyone was happy to show a crappy 3-card limit raise, which we certainly have. I think it's much closer to 2NT at matchpoints than anyone else thinks...upon reflection, maybe even at IMPs. Perhaps more so at IMPs. With a 4333 hand, NT is almost always going to score as many tricks as spades, and we can get back to spades sometimes when notrump is wrong. Failing to inform partner, however, about three-card support just seems awfully like masterminding. Hence, the suggested system tinker.
Matchpoints, non vul

Q765
K10543
---
KJ72

K
AQJ6
K1098
AQ98

You LHO CHO RHO

1 3 5 5

6 Pass Pass 6

Dbl All Pass

T1: 9-10-J-2
Over to you.

BARRY
K. I do not know what is going on, but cutting out trumps seems best.
ROLF
Would my partner lead the 9 from a three card suit? I can't imagine that. I can't think of anything special. I want to kill dummy's entries so I switch to 10.
WALTER
K
LYNN
The obvious play is K. After fairly lengthy analysis, that still seems right. If partner has a stiff heart, we should always take four tricks without the heroic low heart at trick two. If he doesn't, a low heart will cost a trick. [Please send the lengthy analysis. Everyone else admits to being mystified. Me, too. --Jeff]
BOB
I return the six of hearts. My partners are about a thousand times more likely to lead a singleton than a doubleton, especially on an auction like this. Partner should now return a count club through the dummy and I should be able to read the position there. If I don't return a low heart at trick two our second club trick will go away on those rare occasions when we have one coming; i.e., declarer is 6-3-2-2.
Of course, if declarer is 7-2-3-1 I have just allowed the contract to make, but I'll just give partner the charge for his opening lead.
ANDY
A. This could let the contract make, if declarer has Axxxxxx x xxx xx, but that would make partner's lead pretty strange, and this is matchpoints so cashing the A seems unreasonable.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
cash aces, heart.
CONSENSUS
K: 3
T: 1
6: 1
A: 2
WINNING ACTION
almost anything. Not cashing the A, A, then playing another heart.

Q765
K10543
---
KJ72

x
97
AQxxxxxx
xx K
AQJ6
K1098
AQ98

AJ1098xx
xx
J
10xx

COST
not much.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
at the table, I had no idea what was going on. I still don't see how to figure it out. Just about anything could be right.
Matchpoints, none vul
KJ964 A9863 --- Q85

Partner You

Pass 1

2 2

3 ?

BARRY, MIKE
Knew the hand.
WALTER, ROLF
Pass
LYNN
Pass. Even though partner should give you a little leeway on this sequence, I think all the signs are wrong for aggressive action, and this is matchpoints, not red at IMP.
BOB
Pass. If partner's diamonds are weak he might have enough values elsewhere to enable us to make a game, but then he might have responded 1NT. At matchpoints, +170 can be a good score even if game is cold.
ANDY
Pass. Partner's values look to be in the wrong places, and there's no reason to stretch nonvul at mps.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
pass. The defense (but not the defenders, pair 3) was atrocious, leading to +230, which was worth a 20% score.
CONSENSUS
pass
WINNING ACTION
bid game. Partner has x K10xx AKxxx 10xx and everything is friendly, particularly the defense.
COST
80% of a board. Qualifying for the 2nd day of Open Pairs II.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Everyone passed, and I guess it's obvious. We were very unlucky to get a near-zero for missing this "game."
Matchpoints, unfavorable
AQ1053 J87 J2 J106
RHO opens 2NT (20-21). All Pass. Your lead.

BARRY
Knew the hand.
ROLF
I lead a heart.
WALTER
J
LYNN
Low spade. Anything could be right, but our experience suggests playing IMPs here.
BOB
A low spade. Call me unimaginative...
ANDY
5. What my mother would lead, if only she played bridge.
MIKE AT THE TABLE
I'm still convinced the J is a great lead. Not on this hand, though.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
not there. Partner, of course, found the losing choice.
CONSENSUS
: 1
J: 2
x: 3
WINNING ACTION
4th from your longest and strongest, or any other spade.
COST
half a board. Possible qualifying for the 2nd day of Open Pairs II.
GAIN
two hours of sleep. You'd need to go to committee to get the other quarter board to qualify. The committee's decision will be random, so you can't tell. But all of 13-17 are from that day. Getting any two right will obviate the need for a committee or for taking the next day off.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
I don't know matchpoints. I'd lead a spade, but the arguments in favor of a club seem pretty good. Not too many seem convinced either way. Me, neither.
Matchpoints, both, you hold
AKQ KQ AJ10863 A3

You Partner

Pass

2 2 (gf)

2NT 3 (puppet to 3NT)

3NT 4 (natural single suited slam try)

4? 4

4 5

5NT 6NT

?

a) do you bid 4?
b) what's 5NT?
c) what's 6NT?
d) what now?
BARRY
If 4NT is discouraging I'd bid that instead. 5NT is always pick a slam until proved to the contrary...so it is here. 6NT says final contract. Who am I to argue?
ROLF
1. Not if partner often opens good 6 card suits on the 3 level. The more interesting point is: why did I bid 2NT?
2. must be Josephine.
3. Obviously a misunderstanding.
4. Pass actually this looks like the best (most flexible) contract
WALTER
1. yes. I would have bid 3 in lieu of 2NT.
2. You knew what it was when you bid it. Don't ask me.
3. 7N
LYNN
Why didn't I rebid 3? Once partner forces to game, why shouldn't I bid my long suit before veering off into NT? Surely partner's diamond holding is critical to our slam chances, so I should let him in on the joke. [Everyone says something about this. My strong 2 style is a little strange. When I show a strong 2 in a minor, partner expects a small singleton to be adequate support. Perhaps that's not best, but that's why I bid 2NT instead of 3. --Jeff]
Once I failed to bid 3, 4 seems normal.
5NT must mean "I have nothing more to say, you can pass if you like," or "pick a slam," or "do you have anything more to show?" Our agreement is the second of these. If you don't have the agreement that 5NT is forcing, it strikes me as a silly bid; why not 5?
5NT can't be the GSF because no suit is agreed, it's not a jump, and if we wanted to bid GSF in clubs, we would have done so over 4.
Since partner is a passed hand and is extremely unlikely to have the right cards for a grand, we'll pass. He might have xx Axx KQ Qxxxxx, but we think he should bid 6 over 5NT with that.
BOB
1. No. 4 is a cuebid agreeing clubs; I do not have a good club fit. I would not be in this situation, though. I would have bid 3, not 2NT.
2. Grand Slam Force
3. Good hand for NT, but not 2 of the top 3 clubs.
4. Pass and play it well.
Some or all of the above answers may be contra-indicated by partnership experience. I do not feel confident that a strange partner would interpret these bids the same way I do.
ANDY
1. yes.
2. I bid 5N and now I don't know what it is?
3. Depends on what 5N was. Probably partner doesn't know either.
4. Pass. Partner would probably have opened with the A, K, and KQJxx or KQxxxx. Whatever 5N-6N was, I'm guessing he's missing a club honor (rather than having good clubs and a stiff diamond).
MIKE
Knew the hand.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
7
CONSENSUS
1. yes, but would have bid 3 instead of 2NT
2. GSF: 3, Pick a slam: 1, natural/nonforcing: 1
3. no one knows
4. pass
WINNING ACTION
Pass. Partner has xxx AJ Q9 J10xxxx
COST
half a board. Same as #13
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Many suggested 3 instead of 2NT on the second round. That's a reasonable choice if partner will understand that you could have a weak suit for a strong two in a minor. My partners expect quite a bit better suits from me, so 3 really isn't an option; I'll get supported on stiff queen or two small.
I'm not at all convinced that 4 should be bid over 4. This is a great hand for slam, but not in clubs given that partner has failed to make a club positive and is a passed hand. It's a great hand for slam, however, if partner is simply inviting slam on power and showing clubs along the way. How does one show such a hand? Jump to 5NT? 6NT? 6? A possibly better action would have been to bid 4 over 3. That's asystemic, but ought to mean that I have a good hand for slam and good diamonds, just not enough for a strong two bid, which is exactly what I have. Torturing partner with this out of the blue seems wrong, but it makes sense to me upon reflection.
5NT on the face of it is the GSF, but partner can't have two of the top three and been able to cue bid twice, even if one of the cues is shortness, again due to the failure to make a positive response initially. It can't be "pick a slam," because we've agreed clubs. Only clubs and notrump are in the picture now. I think it ought to be a graded GSF constrained by partner's possible club holdings. Something like KJ10xxx should bid more than 6; the actual holding surely bids only 6. Given that, it's still a silly bid---what does it hope to gain? 6NT would have been a better choice. After all, after 4, we pretty much wanted to end up in 6NT, so why not just bid it?
I think 6NT promises great clubs on the given auction. I'd play partner for KJ10xxxx. It seems to me that he should hold xx Axx x KJ10xxxx. Partner might make a club positive on this or might not. I think the suit is good enough, but he might rather bid slowly in case I has a strong two in hearts. He might not want to bid 2-3; 3-5. That might not actually be so bad; Partner will be able to judge the hand pretty well, I suppose. Perhaps he's 1417. Then surely it's right to go slowly; after a strong 2 in hearts, he can just Blackwood. If partner shows pointed suits, he can retreat quickly. That seems unlikely...but so does the actual hand.
Does anyone not play that GSF responses are graded somehow? Does anyone use the room between 6 of our suit and 7? Personally, I think 6NT should be the two-of-the-top-three response, not 7, so partner can look for 6NT with the GSF, but that's not mainstream.
Matchpoints, none vul, you hold
2 KQ963 1094 10762

RHO You LHO CHO

1 2 Pass Pass

3NT Pass Pass Dbl

All Pass

What's your lead?

BARRY
2. Partner wants me to lead his suit - what would that be but spades?
ROLF
Hmmm RHO doesn't seem to be afraid of and he must have quite a few tricks. I guess I lead .
WALTER
6
LYNN
2. This X is supposed to require a heart, but that makes no sense on the auction. Somebody has to have the spades, and I'll guess that it's partner, who was lying in wait with AKQJx and not much else.
BOB
A small heart. The traditional meaning of this double is "lead your suit." I am nothing if not an obedient partner.
ANDY
2. Sounds like partner has his own suit (he didn't raise me, and no one bid spades).
JEFF AT THE TABLE
6.
CONSENSUS
: 4, : 3
WINNING ACTION
2. Nothing else will do. Partner has AKQ10xx and out and spades are 3631.
COST
One full board. Qualifying for the 2nd day of Open Pairs II.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
I agree with Bob that the double says, "lead a heart." If I were sure that RHO was bidding sensibly, that he had 9 tricks when in, I'd be sure this was impossible and consider alternatives. Can we tell from our hand? If partner had a solid suit, would he not have bid it over our 2 bid? If he had a heart honor with enough length to run the suit, plus a diamond stopper and some values, wouldn't he have raised us last time? Yes, and yes, I think. He's more likely to have passed with solid spades than with heart support, so I think he thinks he wants an unusual lead. On the other hand, we have no high cards. Dummy has no high cards. Partner passed with either a solid suit or a fit, so he's not strong. Declarer has a mountain in high cards, so maybe he doesn't have solid diamonds.
What would I have led if partner had not doubled? A black card, probably. Given each opponent's failure to double, partner probably has six spades and he has to have a better hand than I do, so I'd've probably led a spade. I think the double probably does call for a heart lead in theory, without looking at my hand. Looking at it, I have no idea. Shrug.
Matchpoints, both vul

AQJ85
Q86
AKQ
J5

109
K
98652
AK1063

1-1NT; 3NT
T1: 7-J-2-3
T2: A-x-x-x
T3: K-x-x-x
Would you start this way?
What now?

BARRY
Knew the hand
WALTER, ROLF
Q and play a small to 9 going home for 11 tricks.
LYNN
We'd both like to be at the table, but Dale is going to cash Q, then lead a low spade. Some people may be in slam at other tables, so it doesn't seem right to play for top or bottom here.
BOB
a) I think this is a fine line of play.
b) I cash the other diamond and lead the spade queen. If they take this they'd better cash the heart ace, but they will presumably duck smoothly. If they duck, I lead a heart myself. If the spade king is onside I won't get a very good score, but if it's offside I should do well.
ANDY
Now I guess Q and a small spade, ensuring that I take exactly 11 tricks (possibly a very bad score, I know). I think it would have been better to win the club in hand and take a spade finesse. Then I would have play for all 13 tricks. The worst case would be if they win the second apde and play a second club; then I cash the 3rd club, pitching a heart, still taking 11 tricks (4,1,3,3) unless the heart ace is with the long club.
JEFF AT THE TABLE
Q, duck a spade.
CONSENSUS
everyone cashed a diamond and ducked a spade. Only Andy didn't like this line so far.
WINNING ACTION
take the spade finesse.
COST
about half a board. See #13
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
Andy is right. I should have won the first trick in hand and taken a spade hook. That almost guarantees 11 tricks in the worst case (3, 3, 4, 1) and gives the best chance for 13. Almost everyone else is going to get a heart lead and take the spade hook immediately. They will take 11-13 tricks unless RHO knows to fly A, which is extremely unlikely.
After this start, it's not clear what to do, but upon reflection, settling for 11 tricks is probably wrong, so we should go for the gusto.
Matchpoints, E/W vul

K1083
K982
K64
63

J42
1065
AQJ97
75 A65
A4
1032
AK842

Q97
QJ73
85
QJ109

Declarer dealt and opened 1NT, raised to 3NT.
T1: Q-5-3-A
T2: 10-8-9-4
T3: 2-5-Q-K
T4: 6-4-9-7
T5: J...making 3
Signals: standard, Smith Echo by North, Rev. Smith by South, but not applicable on this hand, of course.
Apportion the blame for letting them make a no-play game.

BARRY
I think South's third club is an error. Declarer's decision to win the first club suggests five. [Nope. It meant nine cashers if the diamond finesse worked. --Jeff] But that is being wise after the event. As for the play in diamonds, is this not a Smith position. When can it be wrong to duck a diamond from Kx or Kxx? With Kxxx partner has a fair count at the end of trick two. Correct me if I am wrong - but I do not think you ever need to give count in this position - counterintuitive as it may seem! (you duck once with Kx, Kxx, or Kxxx. End of story.)
North's club continuation looks right. South 70% bad luck the rest!
ROLF
To my mind it's mainly South mistake. North doesn't know what's going on. If South watches the small spots in closely he knows RHO has got AK, the 4 (clear), the 2 as partner what have played that card the first time he had to follow suit and the 8 because he didn't lead it when he was in. He should be suspicious when RHO ducks the 2nd round and switch to . (South 90%)
WALTER
South 80% After the 3 at trick 1, South should switch to the Q. North could switch after winning the diamond trick, but the final fault lies with South.
LYNN
Given that declarer didn't have the wit to conceal the 2 [Lynn probably means "the 4." --Jeff] (which would make the whole thing basically unlucky, we think), we believe that South has enough information to switch. It's not clear which major to shift to, but since either one works here, South gets 100% of the blame.
How can North know to shift? South could easily have 5 or 6 clubs and one major suit A, instead of the hand he held.
BOB
This is a hard one to answer for other players' partnerships. Perhaps North's signal at trick one should be count instead of attitude when playing Smith? That would certainly avoid the problems on this hand, but might cause problems on other hands. I guess my official answer will have to be "abstain" since I don't really blame either player for this result.
ANDY
South's fault, I think. No one did anything terrible, but I think the spots marked north's club as a doubleton. With 863 he would return the 8, and with 632 he would play the 2 at trick 1.
CONSENSUS
South erred.
COST
3/4 board. Qualifying for the 2nd day of Open pairs II.
JEFF UPON REFLECTION
I'm not 100% sure which spot declarer played in real life. I asked partner; he didn't know either. If declarer really did conceal the 2, then South goofed---the spots tell the story. If, however, declarer concealed the 4, it's much harder. I don't see how South could know in that case.
Barry is right about the Smith question, but only in theory. For South to give Smith there requires that North know that it's Smith (not count) and that South know North knows that. No chance. I, for one, would assume count at the table without thinking much about it---dummy has a long suit with no side entry. But now, however, I know better. It should be Smith, in which case, North is somewhat culpable. But North can't know that South thinks that the diamond play isn't count.
So, if declarer concealed the 4, I'd call this basically unlucky. If not, South played too fast.

Jeff Goldsmith, jeff@tintin.jpl.nasa.gov, April 10, 1998

	AQx x AK9x A1098x
KJ Kxxx Q10xx QJx		10xxx J10xxx xxx x
	98xx AQx Jx Kxxx

	QJ10x xx A8xxxx 10
K9xx AQxxx Q Axx		8xx KJxx Jx Kxxx
	Ax xx K109x QJ9xx

	Q765 K10543 --- KJ72
x 97 AQxxxxxx xx		K AQJ6 K1098 AQ98
	AJ1098xx xx J 10xx

You	Partner
	Pass
2	2 (gf)
2NT	3 (puppet to 3NT)
3NT	4 (natural single suited slam try)
4?	4
4	5
5NT	6NT
?

RHO	You	LHO	CHO
1	2	Pass	Pass
3NT	Pass	Pass	Dbl
All Pass

	K1083 K982 K64 63
J42 1065 AQJ97 75		A65 A4 1032 AK842
	Q97 QJ73 85 QJ109

Partner	You
1	1NT (forcing)
2	?

	AQJ85 Q86 AKQ J5

	109 K 98652 AK1063