J1098xx Q10xx A92 | ||
AKQ1098x A A Q1064 |
Declarer | Dummy |
| |
4NT | |
5NT | |
Pass |
I don't believe this answer because it is based on knowing both hands.
It is interesting that most of the panel agreed with
an auction which reached an awful spot. Add the
Dale Johannesen notes that it is always possible
to make
If the clubs are 3-3, it's a pure guess as to which honor I play on the second round, so there's not much to think about. If the suit splits unevenly, the 2-4 spade division suggests (weakly, of course), that LHO will have the length. I can't handle KJxx in either hand (Oh, I suppose I can just handle KJxx on my left with 87 doubleton on my right, but that's too remote for words.) I can't find any percentage edge in any of the rational lines (low to 9, run Q, or lead to A, then deuce to Q unless K appears). My inclination is toward the last choice, as it avoids me having to guess and picks up doubleton J on the left, in a way A followed by low to 10 does not pick up doubleton K on the left.
So the summary is low to ace, deuce to queen if king does not show up.
|
OK, so what's right? Roudinesco's book of suit combinations (The Dictionary of Suit Combinations, J.M. Roudinesco, 1995, p. 181 (a good book, by the way, but very hard to parse)), states that in a vacuum, ace and low to the 10 wins 47.6% of the time. If West is presumed to be the strong hand, running the queen is a 43.8% play and is best. (Obviously, the degree of that presumption matters.) He notes that the holding of the 8 and 7 are important; he does not mention the fact that the 6 is of some value to the variant play (picking up 87 doubleton on the right). Given the 6, that's worth about another percent and a half, so those plays are very close (48.45 / 30 = 1.62; 43.8 + 1.6 = 45.4). With only one entry to dummy, low to the ace and low to the queen is in the same ballpark, a little worse than low to the ace and low to the ten (with two entries) but given no presumption of strength on the left, probably a little better than running the queen (but I'm too lazy to run the numbers again).
Ought we presume club strength on the left? I think so,
and feel pretty strongly about it. The discards aren't
the clue; the opening lead is. LHO is an expert and heard
the auction. He knows that dummy's only entry is the
AQ87x xx Kxx Kxx |
KJ Axx Axx AQ109x | |
Dealer | Responder |
| |
4NT | |
Pass |
Dealer | Responder |
| 3NT |
4NT (I've done enough) | |
5NT (pick a slam) | |
6NT (grand invite) | 7NT |
P |
Dealer | Responder |
... | ... |
4NT | |
| |
P?/7NT |
1) Opener could bid
2) After 2NT -
Dealer | Responder |
( | 2NT |
4NT (keycard) | |
5NT | |
| 7NT |
On deal 2, the partnership apparently plays that
I think that after
The optimal auction:
Dealer | Responder |
2NT | |
4NT | |
5NT | |
7NT |
Dealer | Responder |
2NT | |
Pass |
So while careful judgment-oriented auctions are great for games and small slams, I can see why many players are simply unwilling to use them to find grands. Ed disagrees: "There are two things that lead me to that opinion that are not alwasys present for others: 1) I have a lot of confidence in my partner's bidding, 2) I care more about reaching the right contract and less about the actual result than most (i.e., if partner doesn't have what it sounds like they have, that's just tough)."
Personally, in theory, I think opener should have tried
either a rolling 5NT or even gone the whole hog and bid
In practice, six was enough. At the other table, responder treated her hand as a balanced 18-count and got all the way to 3NT. (I think that was an underbid by about an ace.)
AKxx x AKxx Q10xx |
QJxx Ax xx AKJxx | |
Dealer | Responder |
4NT | |
Pass |
Dealer | Responder |
| |
4NT | |
5NT | |
Pass |
Dealer | Responder |
Pass |
If LHO opens
Dealer | Responder |
| |
So, let's say the auction starts
In the auction given, I also don't like the
Is an agreement regarding kickback lurking here? I confess that I would
play
Dealer | Responder |
| |
| |
all keycards at least I tried and got a bit closer than your auction) | |
Pass |
It would have worked better for opener to rebid
Dealer | Responder |
4NT | |
5NT | |
Pass |
Dealer | Responder |
4NT | |
5NT | |
Pass |
So is it better to splinter? I don't know, What if responder's hand
were
Dealer | Responder |
Pass |
In our methods, by the way, opener doesn't have the option
of bidding
Upon reflection, it seems to me that if opener should
drive to slam opposite responder's 3NT rebid, then he
really ought to bid the grand if responder cues and
then jumps. On the other hand, responder could have
made it much easier; instead of jumping to
Dealer | Responder |
4NT | |
5NT | |
Pass |