Some Problems from the Ontario Regional 7/04: Answers

Today's panelists: Chris Willenken, Len Vishnevsky, Marshall Miles, Bobby Bodenheimer, Ed Davis, Robb Gordon, David Caprera, Barry Rigal, John Jones, Mike Shuster, David Weiss
  1. BAM, both vul

     S:J963 H:63 D:KJ5 C:Q1043

    CHO RHO You LHO
    2D:! 3D: ?

    2D: is Flannery, 11-15 HCP, 4S:+5H:, sometimes 6H:.


    CHRIS
    Double. A great BAM problem. In the other room, it rates to start 1H:-(2D:)-DBL, and we'll often get to play 2S:. So, sometimes -670 won't be any worse than -110. [He's right about that. In fact, at both tables, he's right about it! --Jeff] I hope partner has strong hearts. [Or a strong heart if they score an overberry! --Jeff]
    LEN
    Do I know what my counterpart plays? If he plays Flannery, and I know I am a better (or worse, or equal) defender, that might affect my decision. [Probably they are not playing Flannery. --Jeff]

    In a vacuum, X looks right.

    MARSHALL
    Dbl. Very close but I think we are more likely than not to set them. Obviously not at IMPs. [Or even matchpoints...this is a BAM problem only, I think. --Jeff]
    BOBBY
    I have good diamonds, and it doesn't look like we're going anywhere. Pass.
    ED
    I have a little under two tricks expected in diamonds, about one-third of a trick expected in clubs and we have an eight-card and a seven-card fit. If I had to bet, I'd say the opponents will not make but it is close. Too close to double and possibly negate a winning result at the other table. If I pass, LHO may take a shot at 3NT... which I will not pass.
    ROBB
    Pass. I have some pesky cards for defense that will not pull their weight on offense. LHO may even bid! I don't expect to make 3S: and I don't expect to play it undoubled.
    DAVIDC
    This one is tough. The allure of +200 is tempting. Plus 140 would be good but the possibility of -200 is threatening. -110 and +100 is for wimps. Put me in the high testosterone BAM law abiders (no more than 17 and hoping we have half the deck); the D:J, H: shortness and C:10 all sway me in favor of "pounding it." -670 won't surprise me.
    BARRY
    Pass smoothly and hope partner can reopen—not impossible if I bid in tempo. [Nearly impossible. Partner almost never reopens after Flannery because you don't play negative doubles after it. --Jeff] Then I'll have to decide what to do of course!
    JJ
    Double—Lead a heart

    Yes my double is aggressive (I was at the actual tournament and believe the double is wrong on the actual hand, but so what!) but BAM calls for aggressive doubles when the opps are vul and we rate to make a part score. (2S: looks like a favorite.)

    MIKE
    Pass. No reason this shouldn't be a nine-card fit and it is easy to see how my slow club winners could be either finessed or ruffed away. The offensive potential is non-existant and I don't think we are making 2S: (and if so, they are probably -2), so a plus score should be good enough to win the board and -110 is probably normal when they are making.
    DAVIDW
    3S:. Despite my dearth of high cards, I want to boost them once more. I will pound 4D:, albeit with some trepidation—if the diamond queen is on my left, my hand might collapse.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    Double.
    WINNING ACTION
    none, but doubling is -670 and passing is better than that. 3S: is -200. LHO has an easy double. Nothing works because teammates were also -670 in 2S:x.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Dbl6
    Pass5
    3S:1
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    Chris' point that much of the time, our cards will get to play 2S: at the other table is important—if 3D: makes and they get to play 2S:, we have lost the board no matter what. On the other hand, if partner has a stiff diamond, won't the auction go 1H:-(2D:)-Dbl-(3D:); 3S:-(pass)-pass-(Dbl)? That rates to go for 200, which means that doubling could blow our teammates' already won board. On the other hand, if partner has two or more diamonds, we rate to get to play 2S:, so doubling is necessary. Which is more likely? I don't know. It's a very close call. At matchpoints, doubling is less necessary because some of the field is getting to 3S:x or 3D: or other odd spots, so -110 isn't a zero, though it rates to be a poor score. At BAM, however, there's only the one pair to compare against, making double a real candidate.

  2. BAM, unfavorable

     S:76 H:J762 D:A95 C:A1053

    CHO RHO You LHO
    1H: 2D: 3D: 3S:
    4H: 4S: ?


    CHRIS
    Pass. Nonforcing auction, no trump tricks, I consider doubling in front of partner to be horrible.
    LEN
    X. In a nonforcing pass situation, X shows extra values. Of course, I have a min, but the A's are good. Pard might have something like  S:xx H:AKxxxx D:x C:KQxx.
    MARSHALL
    Dbl. I think I had a minimum offensively for my 3D: bid but, of course, very good defense. My 3D: bid showed a limit raise or better, Pass should show better (or at least a max or my bid based mostly on distribution. [Marshall obviously thinks pass is forcing. He is in a minority of one. I for one disagree vehemently. But I'm used to that. --Jeff]
    BOBBY
    I double. I don't think they're making. 5H: doesn't look good.
    ED
    Dbl. Of course they could make... the Angels could also win the World Series. But neither is likely (unless the Angels trade for Randy Johnson). I have good defense and not exceptional offense for my bidding and I must express my opinion to my partner. [It wasn't likely the Angels would win the Series two years ago, either, but it happened! --Jeff]
    ROBB
    Double. Second choice is pass, not forcing.
    DAVIDC
    Pass. American Airlines are nice but I have the minimum limit raise I promised. My pass is not forcing at anybody's vulnerability.
    BARRY
    Pass; not a forcing auction in my book. My limit raises do not set up forcing passes at the four-level. Partner's 4H: call instead of 4C: or 4D: does not announce ownership or invite me to bid so my only choice is double and two small trumps does not cut it for me! [You can still act. After all, 3D: is not limited. Surely you'd do something with another ace. --Jeff]
    JJ
    Pass (not forcing). Pard has a better shot of getting this right than I do.
    MIKE
    Pass. The 4H: bid in a live auction might show extras, but it also might just show long hearts. If partner was bidding to make, presumably he will double. Otherwise, at this paint any other action is hazardous.
    DAVIDW
    Double. Nothing certain, but two aces in their suits ought to provide sufficient defense. I hope CHO is not the secretive sort who would conceal a club suit when bidding 4H:.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    Double.
    WINNING ACTION
    none. Passing leads to -450. Bidding 5H: leads to -500 or -800. Or -450 if they take the push. Teammates, not surprisingly, didn't find this game. 3S: was a bit of a push, but 2D: was also unduplicated having been bid on a 5332 11-count. In fact, our teammates were never in the auction.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Dbl7
    Pass5
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I think it's very likely that teammates will not find 4S:. 3S: looks like a strange bid (it was) and sound teammates might well not find it. If so, playing 4S: undoubled can't be right. If it's going down, we need to double in order to try to cover teammates' small minus. If it's making, we need to "save," hoping either to push them to 5S: or make or they forget to double and only get us one. But we don't have to decide. Partner is still there and can also tell that playing 4S: undoubled is probably wrong. This time he has nowhere to go. Neither do you in a sense, but you don't get to find that out until later. Is your very high defense to offense ratio sufficient to double in front of partner? The panel thinks it's close. I agree.

    Only Marshall thinks pass is forcing. I think he's simply mistaken. This auction is covered by two of my forcing pass rules: (1) limit raises do not create forces, and (2) if one side bids 4H: and the other bids 4S:, normally passes are not forcing.


  3. BAM, unfavorable

     S:AK7 H:J4 D:A94 C:J8754

    CHO RHO You LHO
    Pass1D: Pass1S:
    Dbl Rdbl!2C: 4S:
    PassPass?

    Redouble was a 3-card spade raise.


    CHRIS
    2C:??? Hope partner doesn't have  S:xxx H:AQxx D:x C:Axxxx. I would whack them though. What else, really?
    LEN
    Give pard  S:xx H:AKxxx D:x C:Kxxxx and I might make six. [...and partner would have opened or bid 2NT last time. --Jeff] Since XX wasn't business, I should have bid 3C: earlier, at least. Since I didn't, I want to bid 5C: or more, but it's certainly not safe. I guess double is my best call.
    MARSHALL
    DBl. This seems clear-cut, but I would have bid 3C: the previous round. WKhy hide my offensive values? I didn't know the opponents were going to bid 4S:.
    BOBBY
    Double. Seems obvious.
    ED
    Pass. Tough call. It would be nice to punish LHO for such impudent bidding when we hold more than half the deck. However, LHO is bidding to make and I have no surprises for him. He is certainly distributional and we may not beat this if LHO is void in clubs.  S:J10xxxxx H:Kx D:Qxxx C: opposite  S:Qxx H:Axxx D:KJxx C:Qx with partner holding  S:H:Qxxx D:xxx C:AKxxxx certainly fits the auction. [I think partner should bid clubs with that, not double; he doesn't want to play a high-level heart contract, but he does have lots of interest in clubs. --Jeff] I think partner is more likley to be 4-6 than 5-5 since 1NT would be a better description with 5-5 distribution. If LHO has overbid, there is a good chance our teammates will be a trick lower undoubled giving us a win on the board. It could be that doubling is the only way to lose the board.
    ROBB
    Very close. If they are just too high, shouldn't matter. But if they are in a "normal" contract, advantage to double is to warn partner off disasterous club lead from Kxxx. Disadvantage is that they may be cold and I chucked half a board.

    I would double and prepare to apologize.

    DAVIDC
    This problem wouldn't be here unless they made it, [Hah! A triple-cross! --Jeff] but I want to discourage partner from psyching passed hand take-out doubles in the future. Let me guess that partner is  S:x H:xxxxx D:xx C:AKxxx and we have a double game swing (Partner should have bid 1NT with that hand.) [2NT? --Jeff] By the way, why not bid 3C: in response to the takeout double?
    BARRY
    Double. I can't sell out now—can I? Well even if I can, I won't!
    MIKE
    Double. This time I got 'em.
    DAVIDW
    Pass. A vulnerable opponent who bids like this expects to make it, so I am cautious. My hand is way too promising defensively to save; in fact the double looks so obvious that it feels like a trap for the panel. I lead the jack of hearts and hope CHO can take a trick.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    Double. Finally I doubled something we could beat.
    WINNING ACTION
    none. +100 was the best we could do, but was a loss anyway.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Double9
    Pass2

    This time the panel was mostly of one mind. It'll be the only time in this set.

    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I think 2C: is plenty, despite others' claims that they would have bid more. For what it's worth, 3C: should be preemptive with 2S: being a strong raise somewhere. Better still is that 2S: is a good hand with clubs and 3D: is a good hand with hearts. But partner is a passed hand and he didn't bid 2NT this time, so hoping for a reasonable 5-5 from partner is too much. The perfect 5-4 is possible. And vs. that, game is still not cold. Add another jack to that hand and partner would open it. Giving up on game seems right to me.

    Doubling seems obvious. Finally I doubled something and beat it. Not that it helped to win the board. Despite it's obviousness, is it really right? If 4S: is a normal spot for them, will it be doubled at the other table? Seems pretty likely. It also seems likely that they are going down. So we probably should double. If 4S: is not a normal place for them, should we double? If they are making, our teammates are not going to be able to halve the board, so the double won't cost. If they are going down, we might as well double. Moreover, we may have a partscore to protect and we may well get them two. So, yes, even at BAM, we should double. I think this is the sort of reasoning one needs to use for all close BAM doubles.

    Sometimes these decisions are just best solved using one's personality. Let's see if there is a pattern:

    Panelist123
    ChrisDblPassDbl
    LenDblDblDbl
    MarshallDblDblDbl
    BobbyPassDblDbl
    EdPassDblPass
    RobbPassDblDbl
    DavidCDblPassDbl
    BarryPassPassDbl
    JJDblPass?
    MikePassPassDbl
    DavidW3S:DblPass
    JeffDblDblDbl

    Nope, no correlation. And Mike, JJ, and Marshall knew the boards...and no two of them matched answers!


  4. IMPs, unfavorable

     S:AJ H:KJxx D:J98x C:Kxx

    You Partner
    1D: 1S:
    1NT 2H:
    ?


    CHRIS
    3C: with an understanding partner. Looking for short diamonds, maybe  S:Qxxxx H:A10xxx D:x C:xx.
    LEN
    P. I play NMF of some kind, right?
    MARSHALL
    Pass. Partner could be very weak. I might have raised if I had the C:A instead of the king. [With that, I don't think it ia a problem, but an automatic raise. This is red at IMPs, after all. --Jeff]
    BOBBY
    I think it's very close between pass and raise. I raise.
    ED
    3H:. Worth the risk, e.g.  S:Kxxxx H:Axxxx D:x C:xx.
    ROBB
    Pass, but tempting.
    DAVIDC
    Partner can have a 10-count. If he is short in D:, game may be decent. Something like  S:Kxxxx H:Qxxxx D:x C:Qx has play for game. Vul at IMPs I will bid 3H:.
    BARRY
    Pass; second choice no bid—no third choice. Wrong minor suit cards, though bad diamonds is better than good ones. Give me C:A instead of the C:K and D:J and you might tempt me but even then it is not clear. [First person to think this isn't close. If the C:K were improved to the C:A, I'd think it not close. --Jeff]
    JJ
    Pass, I've missed games before by passing hands like this, but it's not quite enough to merit a 3H: bid.
    MIKE
    Pass. I like that my diamonds are bad, as partner would upgrade a borderline hand with secondary diamonds to our detriment. That said, this hand needs a perfecto to make game. I want partner to continue to bid 2H: with 5S:+4H: and a bad hand—and have a chance that something good will happen. If everytime he catches a fit he has to play at the three-level that is counter-productive. If you bid 3H: here, does that mean you expect partner to pass 1D: holding  S:Qxxxx H:Qxxx D:x C:xxx or to bid 2S: over 1NT? [Likewise, do you want him making game tries with  S:Kxxxx H:A10xxx D:x C:xx? And do you really think the opponents would be silent if partner held a 4-count? --Jeff]
    DAVIDW
    Pass. Gee, I have a great hand considering it is a minimum. But unless CHO is 6-4 and is void in diamonds, game is unlikely to be cold. In my preferred methods, CHO could invite via 2C: with as little as  S:Kxxxx H:AQxx D:x C:Qxx. Let's take our +140. If I were to make a try, I would test him with 3C:.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    3H:.
    WINNING ACTION
    pass. +110 is the maximum on the hand.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Pass7
    3C:1
    3H:4
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I think it's extremely close. At matchpoints, passing is obvious; there's no reason to risk the plus for what is unlikely to be a cold game. But red at IMPs, partner can have  S:Kxxxx H:Axxxx D:x C:xx and 4H: is pretty good. Even with his minors reversed, 4H: is up to par. You know you aren't getting doubled in 4H:, so you are risking five IMPs (for +110 vs. -100) to try to win ten. I'll lay 2-1 odds that we aren't going down at the 3-level.

    Should 3C: be weak diamonds and good clubs or should it be an artificial 3H: bid stronger than 3H:? Since bidding to the 3-level at all is very rare, probably we don't need such a fine distinction, and letting partner know that  S:Q10xxx H:Axxxx D:x C:xx is good while  S:Q10xxx H:Axxxx D:xx C:x is bad seems like a worthwhile gain. I would have assumed the other treatment, (parallel to similar auctions which usually happen at the 4-level) but I'm convinced this one is better. I like 3C:. Given that the panel thinks bidding vs. passing is about 50/50, the vigorish from 3C: tips it, I think.


  5. IMPs, favorable

     S:x H:Jxx D:Jxxxxx C:xxx

    RHO You LHO CHO
    1S: Pass4H:! 5H:
    Dbl Pass6S: Pass
    Pass?

    4H: was a Splinter raise. (Why, if he was just going to bid slam anyway, I don't know.)


    CHRIS
    Abstain. Would want to be at the table, know my opponents' habits, etc. [They were unknowns. First match. --Jeff]
    LEN
    Hand improved when pard showed heart support. I would have bid 6C:, lead directing, my last turn, but 6S: is too rich. I pass. [I admit that I have no idea what he's talking about. His further explanation didn't enlighten me, either. --Jeff]
    MARSHALL
    7H:. I suppose, theoretically, I shouldn't sacrifice ahead of partner, but partner won't realize how bad my hand is. With the C:Q I would pass.
    BOBBY
    I pass. We'd have to take 7 tricks to make 1 IMP, and have the possibility of losing a lot more. I lead a heart.
    ED
    Pass. Nobody said they were going to make it (partner could win the H:A and the C:K or C:Q [Bingo! --Jeff]) and we will be in -1400 to -1700 territory in 7H:. Better to take our chances against 6S:.
    ROBB
    [7H:.] I think pard can take 5 tricks and they can take 12. Only question is whether they can take 13. I take a chance and bid hoping pard can take 6 tricks.
    DAVIDC
    Don't see why I wouldn't lead a H:. Oh, this isn't a lead problem?
    BARRY
    7H:. OK; I think they will make and I've been had for a sucker before.
    JJ
    Tough, tough call. It's likely to be 8 IMPs if I am wrong (1430 vs. 1100) It might be helpful to know what the double of 4H: would have been. [Good point. Most play some form of Rosencranz (or Guildenstern), but I think at this vulnerability, it should be suggesting a save. --Jeff] However, if 5H: was a good save against 4S: then 7H: must be a good save unless they are going down. I'd very much like to be at the table for this one. However, if the 6S: bid was made quickly and confidently by a sound player, I'd probably save. If those conditions aren't met then I'd pass.
    MIKE
    Pass. I'm afraid they may bid seven if I save—or we'll probably be down 1400 anyway. I don't think we're beating them, so it is pretty close.
    DAVIDW
    Pass. Although I don't expect to beat this, I have no reason to believe the save will be cheap, or that teammates will bid the slam. So I may as well hope for a plus.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    wasn't there. I'd probably pass. I don't like high-level saves without any tricks for partner. It wouldn't surprise me that I have one entry and one trick, which I'll have to use at trick 2. If I had a fourth heart, I'd save. My teammate bid 7H:, which worked out very poorly.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Pass8
    7H:3

    2/1 in favor of passing. Sort of a consensus.

    WINNING ACTION
    don't bid. 6S: has no play at all. 7H:x goes for sticks and wheels.
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    Tough call but I'd pass. RHO thought 5H: was too high. LHO's bidding was inconsistent. Maybe he was wrong. This may just be a personality test. I'm not a big saver; I tend to defend. I also figure that partner can play me for this much help and save on his own if it's right. Now give me a fourth trump...

    There is a theory issue. Partner bid 5H: rather than doubling 4H:. Assuming no Rosencranz (double means lead clubs) or Guildenstern (double means lead diamonds), which I think is best at favorable, why did partner bid instead of soliciting your opinion with a double? Maybe he has some defense and knows what to do at the slam level? Maybe he was trying to blow away their Blackwood and get them into slam off two aces. If so, saving in front of partner will get you serious egg on your face. Maybe he just has a huge offensive hand and was putting more pressure on them. Who knows? If it were easy, it'd not be here.


  6. IMPs, none vul

     S:Q1098x H:xx D:xxx C:xxx

    CHO RHO You LHO
    1NT (10-12) Pass?

    Methods are 2-way stayman and transfers at the 3-level only.


    CHRIS
    Two of some major. I think 2H: might get me in trouble, but it is probably the best bid.
    LEN
    I guess I pass, but 2S: is fine.
    MARSHALL
    Pass. I think the opponents are more likely to enter the bidding if I bid 2H: (perhaps by doubling) than if I pass. Oh, I didn't look ahead to see the range or how we were playing. Tempting to bid 2H: or 2C:, but don't want to risk a disaster.
    BOBBY
    I think 2S: is right then. It has some reasonable preemptive effect, and it's very difficult for them to double us for penalties. After
    1NTP3H:X
    P P3S:X
    it seems a lot easier for them to do the right thing, whatever that is.
    ED
    2S: (before the penalty doubling starts). Here's a good story. Many years ago at a National in St. Louis, I opened a 1st seat 10-12 1NT. LHO passed and Mike Smolen, my partner, had  S:xxx H:Qxx D:xxx C:xxxx. He tried to bluff the opponents by jumping to 3NT. On a good day the cards would have been evenly divided and we might have escaped the double. On this day Jack Spear, my RHO, apparently thinking that two decks might have gotten mixed up together, asked if everybody was holding the cards with the horses on the back. After confirming that we all held cards from the same deck, he chuckled and said "Double." He held  S:AJx H:Kx D:KJx C:AKQJx.

    [Many years ago, I had a similar occurrance. I was playing a regional pairs game with someone I'd never met before. We didn't have time to discuss methods, so when I held  S:xxx H:xxx D:x C:KQJ10xx at favorable and heard him open 1NT (15-17), I shrugged and bid 3NT. It went slow pass, pass, slow pass. Partner played out a trick or two and then just threw it in for down 9. He held  S:xxx H:xxx D:KQJ10xx C:x. --Jeff]

    ROBB
    2H:. Let's have some fun.
    DAVIDC
    This one is classic. I bid two of a major—hearts.
    BARRY
    2H:. Natural and to play? Good enough for me!
    JJ
    I bid 2H:, (transfer, even if pard thinks it to play!!!!!) My 2nd choice is to bid Stayman and pass either 2D: or 2H:, (or correct 2D: to 2H:) If pard bids 2S:, then I could raise to 3S:. In any case, I try to make it difficult for the opps to find their probable game (4H: or 3NT). [I don't think Stayman will help very often. LHO will double and partner will show a major or not. If he shows spades, you might choose to jump to 4S:, knowing they can make 4H:. Problem is, they can't go wrong. 4S: will probably go for 500 and 5H: will make anyway. If partner doesn't bid a major, they shouldn't have much trouble finding hearts and game. --Jeff]
    MIKE
    Pass. This puts immediate pressure on LHO to bid or end the auction. [Pressure? I think he rates to be itching to bid. --Jeff] If we're doubled, I can still run to 2S:, but I think this will make it slightly harder for them to find game, as 2S: gives RHO another shot. If they were vul and I had a sixth spade, I would consider 3NT.
    DAVIDW
    2C:. I would like to transfer to 2H: (yes hearts, not spades), but apparently my methods don't allow that. So the question is which lie will sound plausible. Maybe we can win a few IMPs for down 5 or 6 against their game. I will pass CHO's response, correcting to 2S: if they wake up and double. [I don't understand why transferring to hearts is better than simply bidding them. --Jeff]
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    2H:. A total psych.
    WINNING ACTION
    none. (Detect a pattern here?) After 2H:, the opponents bid 2NT-3C:; 3D:-3NT. Did they know what they were doing? No. 3NT was cold anyway. Yes, they had a 4-4 heart fit.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Pass3
    2C:1
    2H:6
    2S:2

    Hah! A majority psychs!

    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I like 2H:. Good and honest opponents play doubles of 2H: as takeout and 2NT as minors. (Maybe that's not best...perhaps 2NT really ought to be a good balanced hand?) We could easily play 2H: undoubled down five or six to win a few IMPs.

    Most of the panel psyched something (some passed, which I think is a psych, but most bid their short major.) Next time this comes up and the ACBL powers that be get on my case, I shall quote this result that shows that the "normal" action here is to psych.


ALL IN ALL
This is a brutal set of problems. Deciding whether to make a penalty double at BAM is one of the hardest (and randomest) decisions in bridge. BAM is a tough game. The third problem was just so no one would double three times and let them make all three. Other than that one, all these problems are super close. The panel consensus is not illuminating, though they pretty much all psyched on the last hand. That's good...the ACBL doesn't like auctions where it's normal to psych, but I have found one, so I can tell them to take their illegal nonsense and go away. I agree with Chris' choice on problem #4. If you are going to guess, you might as well get some vigorish. His call is the only one which does. I think it is the best call of the set. Probably many more would have bid if they had thought of bidding 3C:.