Answers to Three Problems, 11/19

Today's Panelists: Robb Gordon, David Grainger, Brian Glubok, Chris Willenken, David Caprera, David Weiss, Mike Shuster, Fred Curtis, Ed Davis, Bobby Bodenheimer, Kent Hartman
  1. Matchpoints, none vul, you hold

     S:Q76 H:KJ85 D:1042 C:AQ3

    LHO CHO RHO You
    PassPass3S: Pass
    PassDbl Pass?

    ROBB
    Pass. Glad it's matchpoints.
    DAVIDG
    Pass and hope for the best.
    BRIAN
    Easiest Four Heart Bid of the Month. I bid 4H: first, asked questions (ran the LTT analysis) later.
    Us: 8 hearts on average
    Them: 9 spades on average
    Adjustments: Their long spades - adjust up 3/4
    Mitigating Adjustment Downwards: Our queen third of their long spades - adjust down 2/3
    Total Trumps 17 1/4
    We might be able to make 4H: (10 tricks) and they are down two. Partner might be void in spades and/or have five hearts If we bid 4H:, one of them might bid 4S:. Don't overlook Declarer's Advantage (Round up on LTT)

    I hate it when partners pass 3S: doubled with hands like this. But that's just me!

    CHRIS
    4H:. Partner should be short in spades, and nonvul preemptors normally do not hold the AK of their suit, so I would not expect to score a trump trick if I passed. If partner has a typical  S:x H:QTxx D:AKxx C:JTxx, they probably make 3S: if the C:K is right for them; if it's right for us we may well make 4H:.

    I would not have re-opened with partner's hand. Only three hearts, and a horrible defensive hand with so much secondary strength in the long suit.

    DAVIDC
    4H:. Hoping -100 beats -530.
    DAVIDW
    4H: seems routine. Pass is too risky. Our partnership doesn't have enough high cards for 3NT to be reasonable.
    MIKE
    4H:. I love masterminding and all, but I don't believe this is the right time to do so. The third seat preempt could be made heavy or on a 6-card suit, making 3NT more dangerous than it would be vs. a 1st seat preempt. What's more, I expect that the heart game will usually make.
    FRED
    For partner to risk a possible force to the 4-level with less than an opening hand, he could be extremely short (void) in spades, thereby increasing the likelihood of both contracts' (3S: & 4H:) making. It is no more than even money that RHO holds both S:AK — if that! Too many people focus on “only 4333” but partner has advertised dramatic distribution as a passed hand: 4H: for me.
    ED
    4H:. If partner were not a passed hand, 3NT would be worth considering, since partner could have two spades and might have only three hearts. However, to enter over 3S: with a hand that could not open the bidding, partner will be short in spades and will have more than three hearts and might even have five.
    BOBBY
    4H:. Partner has to have hearts and be short in spades for this bid, I think.
    KENT
    4H:. Opponents have about half the deck and at least a nine-card fit. Partner has hearts and short spades.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    4H:. I thought it was a toss-up.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Pass2
    4H:10

    Call me surprised. I think this is a very close decision. Maybe I spent too much time playing with Marshall, as he would pass without pause for thought.

    WINNING ACTION
    None. Partner held  S:x H:A32 D:KQ8xx C:J9xx. The opener had  S:AKJ10xxx H:10x D:x C:xxx, so it looks as if we have a spade, two hearts, and two clubs against 3S:, but the other six tables played 3S: and no one beat it. Everyone was -140. It looks as if I can maybe get out for -100 in 4H:, but the winning play is far from obvious, and I didn't find it.
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I thought it was very close. No one else in the field doubled with partner's hand, so they were all -140. My partner was probably the only one who didn't get a fast pass over 3S:. We need the stop cards back, only with lights or something that will tell opponents when it's OK to bid. They'll still fold their cards and arms and look bored, though.

  2. IMPs, non vul, short matches, you hold

     S:A9xx H:xxx D:Kxxx C:Qx

    RHO You LHO CHO
    4H: PassPass6C:
    Pass?

    ROBB
    Tough one. I bid 7C: but I am prepared to apologize.
    DAVIDG
    7C:, but you already asked me this. [This was from Puerto Vallarta. David's answer then was, "who's my partner?" Pretty good answer, I think. --Jeff]
    BRIAN
    7C:. With just the C:Q, no way. With just the C:Q and the S:A, no, but maybe. With the C:Q, S:A, and D:K, it's hard for partner to have even a gambling 6C: bid that won't have a play opposite this.

    It is a tough call and it is a situation that comes up very rarely in a single bridge lifetime. I have seen all three scenarios, I think:

    1. 6C: is the right contract, the other hand passes, and 12 tricks precisely are made.
    The other scenarios are much more frequent:
    1. The partner (Advancer) bids seven, based perhaps on the H:A and another smidgen. The H:A does not pull weight and 7C: goes down one.
    2. Advancer considers bidding seven, holding a zillion critical cards, doesn't, and the grand is cold.
    Scenario 2 is the nightmare scenario. You need at least two or three, if not five or six, Scenario 3s to compensate for one Scenario 2.

    As I suggested, it's useful to construct the worst possible hand partner could have for his 6C: bid:

    •  S:Kxx H:A D:— C:AKTxxxxxx — Even opposite that we can play to squeeze one guy between the D:A and the long spades. Is that a 6C: bid?
    •  S:QJx H:— D:A C:AKJTxxxxx — Marginal 6C: bid, and I have been working to construct hands where the C:Q doesn't help. (The 6C: bidder has ten of them.)
    If the club queen helps:
    •  S:— H:A D:AQTx C:AKJTxxxx — then we are almost definitely cold.
    Good problem.
    CHRIS
    Pass. Partner was expecting the club finesse to win if necessary. Could make seven, of course.

    I bet the other table would not have bid seven with screens.

    DAVIDC
    Pass. Yes I have a great hand but partner has bid part of it already. For example, he is already betting he has no club losers (e.g., AKJ-8th).
    DAVIDW
    7C:. Partner has already bid some of my hand, but these cards are especially golden.
    MIKE
    7C:. I really want to pass this, but the only constructions I've had where it is a bad grand involve either a diamond void a heart loser to go with an 10-card suit. Sure partner is entitled to play us for a cover, but we have at least two and usually three.
    FRED
    I am a wimp — pass but would not be surprised if grand made. Typically, I would be slightly more sanguine about prospects of grand if the hand was changed and bidding had been a jump to 6 of another suit – as sometimes the risk of partner pre-emption by jump following a double when holding the lowest ranking suit, necessitates different action.
    ED
    Pass. Would partner jump to 6C: with  S:KQ H:— D:QJT C:AKJTxxxx or  S:Kx H:— D:Axx C:AKJTxxxx or  S:KQ H:— D:AQJx C:AT9xxxx? I think they are all reasonable 6C: bids but some would choose to bid 5C: instead. Since my hand would pass a 5C: bid by partner, it is not unlikely that we will win double-digit IMPs just for getting to 6C:. Although any of these a couple of these example hands might make 7C:, but you would prefer to be in 6C: (especially when your opponents are in 5C:).
    BOBBY
    So, if the sequence had gone "2H:-P-P-6C:" I think that this bid has a clear meaning of "I have a one loser hand in six clubs". In that case, I would have an easy 7C: bid. I think it probably should mean the same thing in the present circumstance, but high preempts jam the bidding space, and partner may be squeezed for a decision. However, I still have a really nice hand for him, so I will bid 7C: anyway. It's not always possible to make the right decision after high preempts.
    KENT
    Pass. I don't want to venture seven on this auction. Partner may have won the board already. Returning with a grand down one when opponents were in game isn't nice.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    wasn't there. This was partner's problem. I don't often give problems where partner got it wrong, because it smacks too much of beating on partner, but this problem is so good that I had to.

    I vote for bidding. I know that I was partner's partner, and my bidding is usually pretty sound. The only partner I've had who is still alive and has enough experience playing with me to be able to evaluate his decision on that basis bid, so that adds to my confidence. And it makes it a 50-50 vote!

    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    Pass6
    7C:6
    OK, now that's a problem!
    WINNING ACTION
    Bid 7C:. Partner had  S:KQx H:A D:Ax C:AKJ109xx. At the table, my partner passed. Her counterpart at the other table bid 7C:. That cost us the match and the event. She asked me if I thought she should bid. I answered, "I don't know, and if someone told me he did, I wouldn't believe him."
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    This is probably the best bidding problem I've seen this year.

    Chris suggested that a downside of bidding 7C: is that it may precipitate a save in 7H:. I think that's unlikely. The opponents know we are guessing, and a phantom save is a massive disaster. RHO could have nine or ten solid hearts; then he might save, but we probably would have detected such consideration over 6C:. I did the IMP analysis. It turns out to be closer than I thought. If we assume that we are going for 1100 and that our teammates are in 6C:, then it is break even to save if they make 56% of the time. I would have guessed it was a lot worse.

  3. Matchpoints, none vul, you hold

     S:KJ72 H:J432 D:Q8 C:A53

    CHO RHO YOU LHO
    Pass1NTAll Pass

    1NT was 12-14.

    What's your lead?

    ROBB
    Spade. Who knows. Any lead could cost. This one, weirdly, seems safest.
    DAVIDG
    Spade.
    BRIAN
    Lead of either major is okay by me, I prefer a low heart. Better yet, save yourself the lead problem and make the "Both Majors" call over their 1 No Trump opening. 4-4 is a two-suiter. Nobody vul is a forcing situation! [Against a strong NT, I'll buy that, but against a weak NT when partner is an unpassed hand, it's way too dangerous. Partner will act too often. To overcome this issue, with some partners I play 2-way Landy over weak NTs. 2C: shows a real hand, and 2D: is just some crap that doesn't want to pass. That would have been perfect here, but this partnership had recently switched to Mohan. --Jeff]
    CHRIS
    Heart. Clearcut. KJxx/KTxx are horrible leads against 1NT, as there will almost always be time to switch if necessary.

    Note that if partner had AQxx of spades and xxx in hearts, a heart could still be OK. [If the suit is 3-3. If 4-2, not so much. Up partner's xxx to Qxx, Kxx, or Axx, and odds are we blow a trick. Nothing looks good on this hand. --Jeff]

    DAVIDC
    S:2. When anything I lead can blow a trick, I might as well lead the suit with the best result when it doesn’t.
    DAVIDW
    S:2. All leads are risky, so I choose the one that needs the least to avoid blowing a trick. Even if the opponents own the ace and queen of spades, there is a chance I will get two late tricks in the suit.
    MIKE
    S:2. When it is wrong, it won't always be fatal. When a heart is wrong, we're dead.
    FRED
    Anything could be right but on this occasion just play the straight man with low spade.
    ED
    Small spade. Either major could cost a trick but a heart lead could also cost a tempo. Spades will set up more easily than hearts and spades can be the most effective lead even if partner has three small. A heart lead is quite likely to be wrong if either of the opponents have a four-card heart suit whereas a spade lead may be best even if RHO has a four of them.
    BOBBY
    This seems like a complete guess, so I guess 4th from my longest and strongest, S:2.
    KENT
    S:2. I'd be more hesitant if this were against a strong NT passed out. Anything else looks worse.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    S:2. I thought this was the suit least likely to blow a trick. Bird and Anthias disagree, but J432 seems even worse to me. If I had a major suit 9, I'd lead that suit with much more confidence.
    CONSENSUS
    LeadVotes
    H:22
    S:210
    This fell flat. I thought it was incredibly close; KJ22 and J222 are probably the two holdings from which I least like to lead. Yet no one seriously considered a small club.

    On the other hand, the heart leaders are far more confident than the spade leaders. Maybe it's a good problem anyway.

    WINNING ACTION
    Heart. Partner had AQxx over dummy's Kx. A spade blows trick 8 unrecoverably. The field led a spade after 1C:-1D:; 1NT.
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    Shrug. Fourth from your longest and strongest wins the poll if not the board. When put to a total guess, I'm pretty happy to go with the field's lead if I know what it is. I don't think anything has a big edge in expected value. OK, a diamond looks like a serious loser, but that wasn't under consideration.
Jeff Goldsmith, Nov 27, 2019