Problems from the Pasadena Winter Regional '95/Answers

Frankly, I didn't expect everyone to answer all these; most were just "Jeff got crucified for doing something normal yet again" complaints :) (Sorry.)

A couple are really interesting, I think.

Panelists: Steve Altus, Bobby Bodenheimer, Curt Hastings, Ed Davis, Rolf Kühn, Web Ewell, John Fout, Alan LeBendig, and Lynn Johannsen

1. (favorable)
  K9x Qx xx QJxxxx
  Dealer.
  
  Steve
  I would pass if I were the better team. I suspect Chip Martel would think it's mandatory to open 3. [Those two are clearly inconsistent :) --Jeff] Good hand for weak 2.
  Bobby
  Pass. I'm influenced by my K9x and pushed to pass by the Qx.
  Curt
  I pass. Orders of magnitude too high of defense/offense ratio.
  Ed
  Poor suit and too many HCP are a bad combination for a preempt. I could take the bad suit just fine but not with the HCP. My idea of 3m at favorable from a max of xx xx xx KQJxxxx to x xx xxxx QJTxxx. I hate scattered cards for a weak preempt... Qx AKJxxxx Jxx J is ok for 3 if vul.
  Rolf
  Pass.
  Web
  pass. There's obviously a story here, because this action looks clearcut.
  John
  Pass. Surely this isn't a problem?
  Alan
  There must be more to this. Pass is easy.
  Lynn
  This is too much defense for a preempt in my partnerships, even at these colors. I pass, even though that can't be the winning action or this hand wouldn't be here.
  Jeff at the Table
  Pass
  Winning Action
  3. This blasts them out of a cold 4.
  Consensus
  Pass
  Jeff upon reflection
  Web's (and everyone else) right. This isn't a real problem, but just happens to be the first in a string of decisions I got "wrong." I concur with Ed's ranges, except that I could have x xxx xxx QJ10xxx in 1st chair white on red. If I felt a little agressive, maybe even 2236.
2. (both)
  AKJ9xx Kxx xx K9
  
  LHO CHO RHO YOU
  Pass 3 Pass ?
  
  Steve
  3. In strict violation of Bob's Rule, since in some matches I might bid 3NT (especially playing with certain partners).
  Bobby
  3. Pard should have a reasonable hand for this bid.
  Curt
  4. Looks to be the best game although 3N might also be good.
  Ed
  Pass with 3 my second choice.
  Rolf
  3NT - the safest game might be missed.
  Web
  3, in my methods non-forcing but highly invitational. With standard methods, I'd bid 3 forcing, because there is too much of a chance for game opposite a red 2nd seat preempt to pass.
  John
  I would bid 3, and start passing whatever bid... I hope it's 4.
  Alan
  3. Forcing, I presume. Pass could be right but game is a real possibility. I will pass 4.
  Lynn
  It depends a bit on your agreements about preempts. With mine, no game rates to be good, although either 3NT or 4 can certainly be cold. My guess, I think, is 3NT.
  Jeff at the Table
  3
  Winning Action
  Pass. Partner has xx xx Kxx AJ108xx (blech). 3NT can be made. 4 cannot be.
  Consensus
  3
  Jeff upon Reflection
  I think partner ought to have a good hand at this position; I think 2nd seat red preempts ought to be descriptive. I think 2nd seat favorable preempts ought even be decent; I just don't like the odds about preempting in 2nd seat. Others feel differently and are right sometimes, too, of course. (Witness hand one.) Since I think partner has to have something decent, passing seems a little deep to me. The problem with 3, which seems right at first glance, is that 3NT might be missed, as Steve and Rolf note. I could easily see making 3NT vs. xx xx xx AQJxxxx and watching 4 go down. Of course, they might lead or shift to diamonds or partner could have Qxx xx x AJ10xxxx, and 4 is super while 3NT is not so good. Hamman would bid 3NT and probably make it. I'd go down five.
  If you bid 3NT, is there anything to choose between cashing the high spades and taking the club hook or cashing the high clubs and taking the spade hook?
3. (none)
  Ax KQxxx J109 Kxx
  
  CHO YOU
  1NT¹ 2²
  2³ 2NT
  3 ?
  
  ¹10-12
  ²Puppet Stayman
  ³5
  
  Steve
  Screwed by poor methods. Did you show your hearts? Is 4 here is choice of major-suit games? (It is in some similar auctions in my mini-NT structure) [good idea--jeff]
  Anything you do now is just a guess, but I'd imagine that most people would just bid 3NT here.
  Curt
  3NT
  Ed
  Pass. J9xxxx Jxx Kx AQ seems close to the mark. With a better suit partner is too unlikely to open NT. [Hmmm...3NT looks decent on those cards. --Jeff]
  Rolf
  3NT - what alternatives do I have to 2 (STAYMAN)?
  Web
  I want to play 2. After 3, I'd bid 3NT.
  John
  I don't know what partner's doing, but I'm bidding my game. 3NT.
  Alan
  Is a 6th spade possible? This must be an acceptance. Even if five good spades, I raise to 4.
  Lynn
  I am not sure what 3 should imply. My guess is that it's a game acceptance with a weak suit somewhere. That is probably hearts. [The weak suit was spades :) --Jeff]
  Jeff at the Table
  Pass
  Winning Action
  4, 4, or 3NT (or 4 given Steve's meaning) Partner has J1098xx Jxx Ax Ax. (Pretty close, Ed.) and everything is sitting great: Kx onside, hearts breaking. 3NT is a fine contract; 4 isn't, but it does make.
  Consensus
  3NT.
  Jeff upon reflection
  Bob's rule again.
4. (favorable)
  AJ10 K108xx Kxx xx
  
  RHO YOU LHO CHO
  1 1NT¹ Dbl Rdbl²
  
  Pass 2 Pass Pass
  
  2NT Pass Pass Pass
  
  ¹4-15 HCP, takeout
  ²4, no five-card suit
  What do you lead?
  
  Steve
  Fourth from my longest and strongest.
  Bobby
  J.
  Curt
  J. Only because I dont think that im ever going to run hearts.
  Ed
  Heart.
  Rolf
  x - I don't see anything better.
  Web
  J (or T)
  John
  J...
  Alan
  Simple mind. My 4th best heart.
  Lynn
  Again, I know this must be wrong, but at the table I'd lead the 2. No one wanted to X me, so hearts are probably 3-3 in the opponents' hands, and I have our side's entries. Partly I lead hearts because if I decide to lead spades, I haven't a clue which one is right!
  Jeff at the Table
  J
  Winning Action
  Heart. Partner has Qxxx. This is an overcall structure loss hand. Normal folks would overcall 1, which would get 2 on the left and a preemptive jump to 3 from CHO. That makes.
  Consensus
  none
  Jeff upon Reflection
  I think this is a table feel situation. How fast did RHO bid notrump (in a shot, and this pair deliberated about every single action until now)?
5. We bid a normal 4, but 6 makes on a break and two hooks. They "found" it via a misunderstanding at the other table. (Lose 12)
6. push
7. (unfavorable)
  --- AKxxxx Kxxxx Ax
  
  CHO RHO YOU LHO
  Pass 3 4? 4
  
  5 Pass ?
  
  Steve
  the sixth and final heart. how bad could it be?
  Bobby
  Pass.
  Curt
  6 with reluctance. we could be cold for 7 or have no play for 6. Also makes it tougher for them to sac. At this state of match i would just do something you figured would not be done at the other table...maybe I would push with 5. (I assume you played these in the order given...)
  Ed
  Pass. I might make 6 but if I bid it by choice, they may play it safe and save. My preference is to be able to play the hand so I'll settle for 5 if they let me play it. However, I'll bid 6 if they bid 5. I think it is more likely that I'll get to play 6 this way. I assume that this sequence is weaker than a pass and pull sequence by partner.
  Rolf
  6 - I hate opponents preempting me...
  Web
  A good hand to lobby for 4NT Lebensohl on these auctions. If 5 shows extras, I'd bid 6, but otherwise I'll just pass.
  John
  What was 4? Seems like and underbid to me. I would have taken other action, but at this point I'm a 5NT bidder... 6 could be better than 6.
  Alan
  Pass. Partner is under pressure. I know it could be wrong but my partners never have the right hand. [Mine do when I pass. --Jeff]
  Lynn
  For partnership reasons I have to pass. Sure, we MIGHT make a slam, but partner did not expect me to bid again over 5. He had various other ways to invite slam (by bidding a new suit, which must be fit-showing here, or by bidding 4NT, which we play as a general slam try in hearts). He could be trying to push them around, or he could be taking a save.
  Jeff at the Table
  Pass
  Winning Action
  6. Partner has Kxx J10xx Ax Q10xx. They do have an 800 save, though.
  Consensus
  none
  Jeff upon Reflection
  Ed brings up two good points and Web another, related to one of Ed's. (1) does 4 create a force? Kantar would say, "yes," since we are red on white, but I don't subscribe to that argument. I think this might well be a "who knows who can make what?" case, so I'd say there's no force. So what's 4NT? By a passed hand, ultra-lebensohl makes sense. By an unpassed hand, I'd assume it's key card. It's probably better used as some sort of slam tool other than key card, though. Good spot for some discussion. If pass is forcing, however, it's not needed as u-l, since we have pass-and-pull available. (2) How can we avert a save? I don't know...walking the dog might work. Table feel? In practice, our guys didn't find the save. At each table, the auction began as shown. I have no idea what's right...if I really think 6 is making, it's probably right to bid on; they are unlikely to save at 5/5, though I suppose it helps to know your opponents. How do we avert a 6-level save? If we make a grand slam try, we are going to get to play 6 doubled. If we just bid 6, it's unclear, although in practice, that scored up 1430. Maybe the best move, since we don't know if 6 is making, is to psyche a grand slam try and saw them off in 6.
8. (Lose 13 at the other table.)
Two others:
IMPs, none vul
Q AKQxx KQ6xx Ax

LHO CHO RHO YOU
3 Pass Pass ?

Steve
4. How bad could it be? Again, showing blatent disregard for Bob's Law!
Bobby
3.
Ed
4 if it means + M; o.w., X. 4 is third choice mainly because it will miss slams.
Rolf
4 showing my twosuiter. I'll correct 4 to 5.
Web
I'm going to try 3NT. I know this gives up on slam unless partner can bid 4 or 4, [Yeah, right --Jeff] but my first concern has to be to get to a making game, and I don't see any other auction which has higher odds of doing that. (Sometimes, preempts work.)
John
I bid 4. Then correct 4 to 5...Unless 4 shows and a major...
Alan
It would be nice if 4 was a Roman Jump showing touching suits. Since it probably isn't, I'll bid 3 and pray.
Lynn
I think I'll X, at the risk of partner's jumping to 4. A 4 bid is both an underbid and somewhat misdirected. 4 will be hard to recover from if (when?) partner bids 4. I am hoping that I have enough high cards so that pard won't have the values for a 4 bid. The deciding factor, really, is that partner might pass 3X--I'd love it.
Jeff at the Table
4
Winning Action
just about anything other than 4. Partner has K1098x xx A98 KJx. 6NT is a great contract, but this time it goes down. 6 was where we ended up and with 4-1 diamonds, our chances ended after the A lead.
Consensus
five different actions: Double: 2, 3: 2, 3NT: 1, 4: 3, (4: 2) 4: 1
Jeff upon Reflection
what's the difference between a direct 4NT and 4..5? 4NT seems to be a pretty reasonable choice that no one perpetrated.
OK, two folks suggested that 4 showed diamonds and a major (and Alan thinks it might be best as reds). Does anyone actually play that? Sounds reasonable, I suppose. When else is something like this on, other than after weak 2s?
IMPs, none vul
K9xx xxx Qx Axxx

RHO LHO
1 2
2 4

What do you lead?

Steve
a. got to know whether to continue clubs or switch to diamonds. [I'd guess that you have to choose now; if diamonds is right, the A is a key entry. --Jeff]
Bobby
Q.
Ed
A.
Rolf
Q - she's one of my favorite leads.
Web
Q. Need to make an attacking lead with likely pitches coming on the heart suit.
John
Seems like I would try the Q...
Alan
For some reason, my first choice was a heart. Based on record, I'll discard that and try Q. I know, A was right.
Lynn
A club. Oh, you want to know which club? Probably the A because I wouldn't have been able to get my fingers on a low one quickly enough to give declarer any guesses, so I'd guard against stiff K. The Q has some appeal, but it requires not only that partner have the right card (K), but also, probably, that declarer misplay the hand. [I like the point about diamonds/misplaying the hand. --Jeff]
Jeff at the table
A
Winning Action
heart...the whole hand was

AQ10
KJ10xx
Kxx
xx
Jxxxx
---
AJxxx
KJx

Consensus
none
Jeff upon Reflection
A heart lead seems idiotic, although it was found at the other table, costing us a match. I think our guy probably ought to have made the hand anyway, but a minor suit lead didn't test declarer at all. I think it's a total guess between the minors, and that is evidenced by the panel's comments. I absolutely hate leading dry aces, but I was convinced to do so on this hand because I have four trumps. I think clubs is the best chance to get a tap going, and that's a significantly likely way to beat this hand. Diamonds won't work as well because we have only two of them, but are likely to be a better source of tricks since dummy is more likely to have a stiff club than a stiff diamond. If partner has the J, declarer might not know to hold up exactly one round. On the other hand, hearts might be 3-3 or 4-3, and fast tricks'll have to be very fast. Still, it's hard to say: either minor could be right.

Jeff Goldsmith, jeff@tintin.jpl.nasa.gov, Feb. 7, 1996

RHO	YOU	LHO	CHO
1	1NT¹	Dbl	Rdbl²
Pass	2	Pass	Pass
2NT	Pass	Pass	Pass

	AQ10 KJ10xx Kxx xx

	Jxxxx --- AJxxx KJx

Problems from the Pasadena Winter Regional '95/Answers

Two others: