Unlucky? Or Pathetic? Answers

Today's Panelists: Andy Lewis, Barry Rigal, Bob Thomson, Dan Molochko, Ed Davis, Eric Sutherland, Mike Shuster, David Milton, Robb Gordon, Roberto Scaramuzzi, Rolf Kühn, Steve Altus, Walter Hamilton
  1. Matchpoints, favorable, you hold

     S:AKQJ109 H:AQJ2 D:Q54 C:---

    CHO RHO You LHO
    PassPass1S: Dbl
    Pass2C: ?

    ANDY
    3S:. We could be taking anywhere from 8-10 tricks. The auction so far makes me pessimistic.
    BARRY
    2H:, intending to double or bid 3D: at my next turn to see how it works out. The problem with doubling now is that I may not get my third suit into the auction so efficiently. I grant you this could be wrong if it goes AP - but I do not think it will.
    BOB
    This is a difficult problem. I'd like to double to show my strength and support for the red suits, but I'm concerned that partner may leave it in. My lack of a trump to lead and my concentration in the majors make my hand unsuitable for defense.

    I do want to bring hearts into the picture, though. What sort of hand will partner expect for my cuebid? If I had a two-suiter I'd presumably bid my second suit at some level here. I must have a three-suiter unsuitable for defense. If partner bids three hearts I'll raise to four, otherwise I'll rebid spades.

    DAN
    Double. If partner has a red king (unlikely), par is +420. If not, par is +140. I'm going to double and (usually) bid 3S:, my strongest invite; this should get us to game when it makes. If partner bids and rebids a red suit, I will play game in same. If partner passes my double, I'm happy; +200 will be good enough. In fact, our best shot for a top on this board is on defense (e.g. after 2C:-X-3C:-P-P I will double again, hoping for a leave-in).

    Btw, I play 3C: directly over 2C: as GF, how do others play it?

    ED
    3C:. I'd like to make a takeout double then jump to 3S: over 2D: or 2H: and cue bid 3C: over 2S:. However, I do not want to be on lead against 2C:x when partner has C:Qxxxx and out so I'll try for 3C: followed by 3S:. This sounds stronger to me than a direct jump to 3S: which, at this vulnerability, might be interpreted as a tactical bid more than an invitational bid. [That's how I'd play it. --Jeff]
    ERIC
    3C:. Second choice is 4S:.
    MIKE
    Double. If partner passes, they are going for a big number. I plan on eventually forcing to a spade game unless partner jumps in hearts or diamonds, in which case a spade slam. I expect a lot of company from the panel.
    DAVID
    3S:. I have a good hand, but I need some help.
    ROBB
    3C:. I am afraid to defend, when, at this vulnerability, partner will readily leave in double.
    ROBERTO
    3S:; I don't want to double and bid because partner is likely to leave it in, and my defense sucks if one of the opps is short in spades.
    ROLF
    2S: - looks fine to me. It won't end the bidding. If I get the chance I will bid 3H: later on if I get the opportunity to do so. Seven tricks is not enough to head for 3NT.
    STEVE
    Dbl. At fav at MP, I want CHO to know I don'thave the typical Shuster 3rd-seat opener. [Which is not all that unsound, btw. Hodges' on the other hand... --Jeff] There's some danger that you'll play here, but that might not be bad either -- slam seems highly unlikely, and 500 not out of reach. Obviously might be difficult to convey our offensive power but if LHO really has an unfav takeout double and CHO couldn't act over it....
    WALTER
    3C:. We may belong in 3NT, 4H:, 4S: or 2S:. Maybe CHO can do something intelligent.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    4S:
    WINNING ACTION
    Hard to say. The whole layout was:
    S: xx
    H: Kxxxx
    D: Axxxx
    C: x
    S: xx
    H: 10xxx
    D: K
    C: AKQJ10x    		 S: xxx
    H: ---
    D: J109x
    C: xxxxxx
    S: AKQJ109
    H: AQJx
    D: Qxx
    C: ---
    The goal is to get to slam, but 7H: is cold. 7S: is making on the stiff king. Yes, LHO semi-psyched her takeout double. She's going to raise clubs whatever we do (other than a big jump) and RHO will bid clubs, too, most likely.
    CONSENSUS
    ActionVotes
    3C:5
    Dbl3
    3S:3
    2S:1
    2H:1
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I think 3C: is the right bid, but I seem to recall that standard defines that to be a two-suiter with values to open 2C:, but knowledge that 2-suiters don't open 2C: unless they are total mountains. Normally, one would double, but the leave-in is way too scary.

    3S: is way too wimpy. We can make game vs. a 4333 1-count with the right tens.

  2. Matchpoints, favorable, you hold

     S:K752 H:Q765 D:A63 C:J9

    CHO RHO You LHO
    1S: 2NT 4S: Pass
    4NT Pass5H: Pass
    6H: Pass?

    5NT by partner would have been for specific kings.

    ANDY
    Pass. Unless you have some specific agreement otherwise, I think partner is suggesting a place to play.
    BARRY
    Pass. Its only matchpoints and I think I am being offered a choice (why did I make that ridiculous 4S: bid instead of 3C:/D: as our system demands?) I will be facing a 6-4-1-2 shape and even though we are in it the wrong way up we might still bring home the bacon here.

    I am not sure my reasoning stands up - but I do think this is a chioice of contracts - no reason to overrule. Could partner have a hand wanting second round heart control for a grand slam - not if I have the H:Q.

    BOB
    What is partner up to? Is six hearts a playable contract or an obscure grand slam try? If it's a grand try, he's probably looking for the queen of hearts from his failure to bid 5NT. I might have the perfect hand opposite  S:AQxxxx H:AKxxx D:Kx C:---.

    If I'm not familiar with my partner's style in these auctions, though, I'm not prepared to risk a minus score on this hand. I'm correcting back to six spades partly to avoid disaster if partner is on a different wavelength and partly because I want the lead to come up to partner's hand, not mine.

    DAN
    6S:. My favorite convention! Speaking as a Blackwood expert this is not a grand try, it's an offer to play 6H:, and I don't think he's trying to cover in case I have long hearts.  S:AQxxx H:AKxxxx D:x C:x? I think that the right contract is 6H:, to minimize the danger of a heart ruff, but the right bid (safety first) is 6S:.

    Btw, why not 3D: (or whatever) over 2NT? Isn't this a perfectly normal limit raise?

    ED
    Sounds like a request for third-round control. I've got the queen so I'll bid 7H:. Maybe partner has  S:AJxxxx H:AKJx D:x C:AK and can bid 7N.
    ERIC
    6NT. 6H: should be asking for 3rd round control. I'll bid 6N to show the control of the H:Q as opposed to shortness.
    MIKE
    Clearly we have to bid a grand slam. Upon discussion, 6NT ought to show the heart queen as opposed to a doubleton and 7S: the doubleton. On this auction, I can't really have another feature (I'm shocked I have this good a hand). However, absent discussion, 6NT could lead to disaster if partner doesn't read it as a heart control. Since it's matchpoints I'll just bid 7S: and take my ten-half or more. I expect a discussion of methods after the round.
    DAVID
    This is presumably a choice of slams bid. I choose 6S:; trumps are likely to be breaking poorly and 6H: might be more vulnerable to bad breaks.
    ROBB
    7H:. 6H: asks for 3rd rd. control, I need to show the q rather than a doubleton (7S:). I would bid 6NT but that might be misconstrued.
    ROBERTO
    4S: was a weird bid. What's wrong with a limit raise? Now I'm passing. Who knows what partner has?
    ROLF
    Pass. Is this the hand, where the 4-4 Fit produces the crucial extra-trick? Definitely yes. A club loser in partner's hand might be avoidable in 6H but not in 6S:. On the other hand the bidding suggests that the suits might break badly. Anyway - partner will have an excellent H-suit if he proposes it on the 6-level.
    STEVE
    My personal style is for this to SHOW the heart king. If that's what he's got, it looks like we have what he needs... e.g.  S:AQxxx H:AKxxx D:x C:Ax. I'm bidding seven... I guess you're supposed to bid seven hearts in case he has something like  S:AQxxxx H:AKJx D:x C:Ax.
    WALTER
    7H: Partner told me to look at my heart cards and bid accordingly. What would be reasonable for partner's bidding?  S:AQJxx H:AKxxx D:x C:Ax or  S:AQJxxx H:AKxx D:x C:Ax. With the latter you need to play in H:.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    not there; no one was.
    WINNING ACTION
    something that shows the H:Q. Partner has  S:AQJ10xx H:AKJ10x D:x C:A. The goal is to get to 7NT. I was simply wondering how many had discussed these auctions and what the results were.
    VOTES
    ActionVotes
    7H:4
    Pass4
    6S:3
    6NT2
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    The panel was split between thinking that 6H: asked for 3rd-round heart control, was natural and a choice of contracts, and was overly confusing. I, being a scientific type, think it asks for 3rd-round control. Mike overbids by saying, "clearly...," but his conclusions were what we came up with after the hand. What's the difference between 6NT and 7H:? I guess they should each show the H:Q (and 7S: show shortness). Perhaps 7H: means "I can stand to play 7H:" and 6NT means "I do not want to play hearts." Either denies a side king, since we might want to reach 7NT with the card (not shortness) and might need to show high cards along the way. Alternatively, maybe 6NT means "I have a side queen." Beats me.

    Many thought that 4S: was strange. I'm not convinced. Yes, this hand looks like a limit raise. Given the auction, would you stop if partner bid 3S: over a limit raise? I wouldn't. Bidding the LR+ and then bidding again shows a better hand than this, surely. I've also never liked LR+ bids when the auction gets competitive. Anyway, if LHO bids over 4S:, we know what to do. If partner bids, we are happy; we have good offense. If he passes, we are happy to double them. Shrug. And they don't get to double for a lead.

  3. IMPs, long matches, both vulnerable

     S:Q2 H:QJ765 D:J54 C:A83

    CHO RHO You LHO
    1S: Dbl ?

    ANDY
    Redouble. If it goes (2m)-P-P-, I will bid 2N. I'm willing to give up on hearts (if we have game it is likely in spades or notrump), and i think 1N is a (very) slight underbid.
    BARRY
    Redbl. Intending to rebid 2H: if a minor suit comes back to me. 1NT is the only practical alternative and at pairs I'd probably do that. But I do not want to miss out on a game/penmalty here - and facing short hearts (eg a 5-xx shape) I might get it.
    BOB
    1NT. What else would I bid? I have a poor balanced ten count with a heart suit that was uninspiring even without the takeout double. My partners all open far too light even to consider a redouble.
    DAN
    1NT. This is not close. Even if I played that 1NT denied 10 HCP, which I don't, I'd still bid it. Alternatives? 2H: is misguided and over-aggressive. Redouble? Now LHO will get in a lead-directing 2m, we can't play in 1NT, I haven't limited my hand, and we're on a forcing auction while I have cheese. [He passed 2C: when partner bid it over 1NT. --Jeff]
    ED
    Looks like a 1N bid to me. [Rebids 2H: over 2C:. --Jeff]
    ERIC
    2.5H:. Given that we are vul, I'll go for 3H:. [I think Eric misread the problem. --Jeff]
    MIKE
    Redouble. Very few auctions will give me any trouble after this start (if partner passes 2 of a minor, I will bid 2S:... I will gleefully pass 2m doubled, they are red and its not game... and its imps). The only trouble is if LHO preempts a minor and partner passes. Blech. Then I'll try 3S:, since I set up a force, but I won't be happy about it.
    DAVID
    I may be mistaken, but, doesn't 1NT describe this hand pretty well? [He bids 3S: after partner's 2C: rebid. --Jeff]
    ROBB
    Redouble. WTP? If they bid a 2 of a minor passed to me I am not ashamed to bid 2S:.
    ROBERTO
    Redouble; if partner doubles 2m I'm leaving it in. If they bid hearts, I'm hammering it. If they bid 2m and partner doesn't double (likely) I have an easy 2S: bid. Second choice: 1N.
    ROLF
    1NT. The alternative 2H: is too much a sign-off and the H: are only five and not good enough. The hand looks pretty notrumpish anyway. [He bids 2H: after 2C: very happily. --Jeff]
    STEVE
    1NT. Seems like the best general description, and will encourage CHO to rebid spades which I'd like. Need to show values, it might be awkward to try to compete on the next round and even both vul it's wrong to sell, too easy to lose 5 or 6. I like to lose mine in multiples of 14 or more.

    So, do I miss a heart game or go for my life? [No. --Jeff] [He continues with 2S: after 2C:. --Jeff]

    WALTER
    1N [Then 2S: over 2C:. --Jeff]
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    1NT
    WINNING ACTION
    Redouble. RHO doubled on a 3343 14-count and was headed to 800 or 1100 country. Partner hand  S:AJ109x H:8 D:KQx C:KQxx. He bid 2C: over my 1NT and passed my 2S: rebid. Game is cold in two strains. This is the second problem after an offshape takeout double. By now, I was wondering if it might be sensible to double offshape, but another time they perpetrated the same offense, they went for 1400, so I'm satisfied.
    VOTES
    ActionVotes
    1NT8
    Redouble5
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    1NT. I'm with Bob. My partners open cheese. I have cheese. Which one of us is going to beat the tar out of them? Against folks who often make offshape takeout doubles (has anyone ever seen this accurately checked on the convention card?), however, more agressive redoubles seem right. As one who played Overcall Structure for a long time and got buried exactly once after a superlight NTO, I am convinced that it's wrong to redouble agressively if the opponents do not double offshape. But they don't know that they do.

    I'm surprised no one considered passing. Passing now and doubling in later shows a balanced 10-11 or so with three cards in their suit. (Remember "I've Got a Secret?") That rates to be a perfect description of this hand. Passing was my second choice at the table, but with all this soft stuff and the S:Qx, I slightly preferred 1NT.

  4. IMPs, long matches, both red

     S:Q6432 H:Q10x D:KJ9 C:AQ

    You Partner
    1S: 3D:*
    ?

    * 3D: shows either

    1. A limit raise in spades with length and strength in hearts, or
    2. a 4333 hand, 12-15 HCP, with notrump orientation and stoppers

    Now, 3H: asks which; 3S: = a, 3NT = b.
    After 3S:, we can ask about hearts.
    3S: is to play vs. a), will hear 3NT vs. b)
    3NT is to play vs. either.
    4S: is to play vs. either.
    Others are slam tries.

    After 3H:-3S:, 3NT would be Mathe.

    ANDY, BARRY, STEVE, WALTER
    3NT
    DAVID, BOB, ED
    3H:, followed by 4S: over 3S: or pass over 3NT.
    DAN
    3H:, then Pass/3NT or 4S:/3S:. I'm bidding game, and I don't want to be in 3NT opposite the limit raise because we probably have a loser in each major (and I need to establish both) so they'll be cashing tricks in the minor they lead.
    ERIC
    Having never tried this convention, I think that 3H: is right to keep the ball rolling.
    MIKE
    I relay... Opposite b, no problem, we play 3NT...

    The textbook example of partners hand (for a) would be Kxxx, AKxx, (xxxxx). Opposite this, we want to be in 4S: (or 4H: from my side!--the relay-- if partner has hearts) at imps red (3NT would go down whenever we lose 2 spade tricks and some other lies... partner could have  S:Kxxx H:AKxx D:xx C:xxx in which case we see D: to the ace, diamond back... -1) With partner's cards in hearts and spades, it is difficult to construct hands that play only one trick worse in NT... and NT may even go down multiple tricks if you are unlucky. So relay twice and play 4H: if he's got 5+ of them and 4S: if hes got 4 of them. [Each example above would see partner's correcting 3NT to 4S:. --Jeff]

    ROBB
    3H:. WTP? ...then 4H:.
    ROBERTO
    3NT. With some misgivings, but I want to play it from my side. If partner has a very unblalanced hand with hearts, he's supposed to pull it, right? [Even mildly unbalanced. --Jeff] Then we'll play 4H: or 4S:.
    ROLF
    3NT. I don't really care what partner has.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    3NT
    VOTES
    ActionVotes
    3NT7
    3H:7
    WINNING ACTION
    Get to 4M vs.  S:KJx H:KJxxx D:Qx C:xxx, but there's no big bonus for getting this one right. No game makes. 3NT was down 300 and 4S: down 200 at the table. (Each major is 4-1; C:K is offside.)
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    I think I'd change to the relay and hope that we win the board by reaching hearts when that's a better strain. Relaying has two ways to win: 1) 3NT might be awful, and 2) hearts might be the winner. But Hamman says...
  5. Matchpoints, unknown opponents

    S: K9872
    H: K4
    D: KQJ6
    C: A4
    S: Q
    H: A1065
    D: A1087
    C: 10832

    1S:-1NT (semiforcing); 2D:-2NT; 3NT

    T1: C:5-A-Q-2
    T2: C:4-K-3-7
    T3: C:6-8-9-S:2
    T4: C:J-S:7-S:6-C:10
    T5: S:J-8-3-Q
    T6: D:7-2-K-9
    T7: D:Q-H:7-8-3
    T8: D:6-H:9-A-4
    T9: D:10-5-J-S:4

    a) Do you approve of the bidding?

    Most did. The only realistic alternative was for Declarer to bid 3D: instead of 2NT. At matchpoints?
    b) Do you approve of the play so far?
    Some would have played on spades earlier. I don't see why. I think I played it great until trick 10.
    c) What now?

    ANDY
    It looks like RHO's hand is  S:AT643 H:???? D:9 C:KQ6, LHO's  S:J5 H:??? D:5432 C:J975. I'll cash the H:K and play one toward my hand. This makes if RHO has both honors and has been squeezed, and also if he plays the 8 or an honor and then shows out (lefty then has at best QJ32, and can be endplayed. I'll look foolish if lho had JT in spades.
    BARRY
    East's discards suggest a 5-4-1-3 shape to me (if he has a 4-5-1-3 shape he would surely have pitched a high heart to get partner to play a heart through) so I am going to assume he is down to Ax Hx - - and cash H:A, H:K and play the S:K from dummy.
    BOB
    S:K, playing LHO for JT doubleton.
    DAN
    H:A, H:K, S:K. RHO is surely down to A? - Jx in the majors, so my only shot is LHO starting with J10 in spades. I don't think RHO cards this way from A643 in spades, and I believe I would have noticed something during the auction if RHO started with 6 spades (in which case H:K then duck a heart works). Plus RHO hung on to that S:4. Plus I don't think lefty shifted to a stiff spade.
    ED
    I think it is a big favorite to play on hearts. I'll make if LHO started with xxx in hearts or with Q8xx or J8xx in hearts. If I play on spades I'll need LHO to have started with JT doubleton.
    ERIC
    I play RHO for 5413 with H:QJxx and the S:A. At this point, the hearts are cashing. This is based on the lead of a club as opposed to a heart on the auction and that I don't think LHO would have returned a spade from JTx.
    MIKE
    Unless right hand opponent has defended very subtly, a low spade of the cat is the best shot. It might win if LHO is down to stiff ten and RHO was squeezed in the majors and keps Ax of spades and also when RHO was forced to stiff the spade ace.
    DAVID
    I am going to play AH:, H: to K and then the S:K hoping to smother the S:10 and use RHO as a steppingstone to trick number 9.
    ROBB
    I have to play the S:K.
    ROBERTO
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me that these are the chances:
    1. lefty started with  S:JT H:??? D:xxxx C:J975 (I can make by playing S:K)
    2. lefty started with  S:JTx H:?? D:xxxx C:J975 (I can make by playing S:9)
    3. lefty started with  S:Jx H:xxx D:xxxx C:J975 (I can make by playing H:KA - righty was the victim of a funny squeeze)

    Would righty encourage in spades with A643 or A6543? That's hard to believe, although, if he's bad enough... I guess I'll go with c) Making 4?

    ROLF
    Now there are a lot of opportunities and everything depends on how you think the majors break. You need table feeling for that one. The best chance seems to be to play LHO for S:JT stiff. So I cash H:A,H:K and lead S:Q. If RHO wins and S:T comes down he will have to surrender one trick to dummy in the end.
    STEVE
    Seems like you have to play three rounds of hearts. RHO doesn'thave both heart honors or the spade six was a sick card to play. If LHO started 2344 you seem to have no play. Club queen at trick one seems a bit odd, was that really the card he played? [Yup. Good play, too. --Jeff]
    WALTER
    H:K. RHO seems to have S:A10 H:QJ.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    S:9. Mike's reasoning.
    WINNING ACTION
    H:K. RHO had been squeezed (not a funny one, but a pretty simple squeeze without the count) down to S:A10 H:QJ.
    VOTES
    Action Votes
    H:K6
    H:x4
    S:K2
    S:x2
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    H:K. (1) Squeezes without the count are far more fun dropping doubleton J10s. RHO doesn't have  S:Axxx H:QJ9xx D:x C:KQx or she'd've overcalled. (2) The H:9 is almost certainly a true card. (3) Ed's extra chance is a good vig.

    Playing two rounds of hearts then the S:K is almost identical to leading the S:K. I think it's a tad better in case RHO has been really devious and has all three remaining spades and sets this two. But we should have played on hearts if her last heart wasn't a low spot. If so, she's so devious that I want her on my team.

    Regardless, RHO didn't give the show away. Well done. She should have signalled for a heart return, and then I'd've had no chance. I guess that's obvious; she can count all my points. She played so quickly that I'm sure this was an impossibility.

  6. IMPs, long matches, both red, opposition good but indifferent defensively

    S: xxx
    H: Jx
    D: A8xx
    C: 108xx
    S: AKx
    H: Kx
    D: QJ9x
    C: AK76

    2NT-3NT.

    T1: S:2-x-Q-A
    T2: C:A-9-x-x
    T3: C:6-J-x-x
    T4: S:x-x-10-x
    T5: S:x-x-x-x
    T6: D:Q-x-x-K
    T7: H:x-K-A-x
    T8: H:Q-x-x-x
    Declarer took one more trick, -500.

    On a scale of 0 (Pathetic) to 10 (Unlucky), was declarer unlucky or pathetic?

    ANDY
    2, pretty pathetic. Even i could take 5 tricks on this hand Seriously, i just don't understand this line. Why play clubs before diamonds? Why not cash a couple of clubs after you've played them?
    BARRY
    2. Why duck the second spade - why play diamonds not clubs? perhaps I've missed the point but it looks a useless line.

    If you win the second spade and run the diamond, then East plays his third spade and you get out for 1 down?

    If you win the first spade and take a diamond finesse then cash the minor suit winners and exit with a spade, you get out for one down with little risk of a catastrophe.

    BOB
    I give declarer a 2, mostly pathetic.

    It seems like a serious error to reveal the whole hand to RHO before taking the diamond finesse. If you hook the diamond at trick two, RHO will normally return spades. You are still likely to need RHO to hold the heart ace, but at least you won't be down more than two.

    If RHO wins the diamond and returns a spade, I duck this spade and win the third round. I cash one high club to see if an honor drops, then run the diamonds and lead a club off dummy. If RHO plays the queen I duck and play him for the heart ace. If RHO plays a lower club, I win in hand and exit a club. If lho wins, he's endplayed after cashing for down one. If RHO wins, I make it if he has the heart ace.

    DAN
    3. If the diamond finesse is wrong, I want to take it at trick two so RHO will return a spade not a heart. (Declarer may have been assuming it was right.) I also think it was wrong to duck the second spade: win, diamond finesse, and maybe RHO leads the third spade.
    ED
    The general plan should be try to keep RHO off lead, convince RHO to lead spades if they get in and make LHO lead hearts late. Therefore, win S:K (not S:A), lead D:Q at T2 and try to end play LHO with the second or third round of C: after eliminating diamonds and any spade communication. Declarer actually won the wrong spade, played the wrong suit at T2 and T3 and generally had no semblance of the right plan. Much more pathetic than unlucky. I'll give it a 1.
    ERIC
    I would rate this a 9. I don't think that declarer's line is unreasonable. If he took the diamond finesse early and it lost, he would have 7 tricks, and 8 even if the heart was guessed correctly.
    MIKE
    Gave it a lot of thought. This rates a 2. Trying to duck the club to LHO first is just wrong. You only have one way to play diamonds, so you should do that first... before RHO knows (or is forced) to switch to hearts. Play diamonds first, then decide who you want to duck the club trick to... As it turns out, you'll know your only chance is to play three rounds of clubs and hope the H:A is onside, -2 unless you somehow diagnose the endplay. Maybe someone will pitch a club from Jxx on the diamonds in order to save Qxxx of hearts (not on this hand). Ya never know, but it is definitely right to play diamonds at trick 2.
    DAVID
    I guess about 3.5 I think that the diamond finesse at trick two will almost assuredly get a spade return. there is a t least 7 tricks. 2S:, 3D:,2C:, then maybe an endplay in spades for an 8th. Let me amend my rating to 2.5 This contract has almost no prayer. I think the diamond finesse at trick 2 minimizes the minus potential. [No prayer, eh? Let's see...with clubs 4-1, diamonds 4-1, diamond hook off, and the H:A on, declarer was still making on this "hopeless" line. --Jeff]
    ROBB
    I give declarer 1.5. He could have been luckier, but damn, he sure made it easy for RHO to find a heart. He should have played diamonds first. He should have won the second spade.
    ROBERTO
    1) I don't like the club play at trick 2. I realize that it's the technical play, but it reveals too much about the hand.
    2) I don't like the club duck. I would take the diamond hook now, if not a trick earlier.
    3) the spade duck is suicidal. It insures that RHO will switch to hearts if he gets in with the diamonds.

    I'd give declarer a 2. After all he did hold the penalty to less than the value of the opponents game

    ROLF
    5 - shit happens
    STEVE
    Um, I'm pretty confused. What is it you wanted declarer to do? Cash out for down three? [I'm calling that a 9. --Jeff]
    WALTER
    3. Both. Why go after clubs before diamonds. If the diamond hook is on, you can try to duck a club to LHO. If it is off, you don't want to get crushed as above. Even if you found the doubleton C:QJ you have 7 tricks. You still have to hook the diamonds. It was pathetic and unlucky. The Diamond hook was off and there was no chance to guess the Heart situation. That is unlucky.
    JEFF AT THE TABLE
    pathetic.
    CONSENSUS
    3.4, mostly bad, somewhat unlucky.
    JEFF UPON REFLECTION
    Bob's line seems sensible and rates to go down far fewer. On the other hand, the given line makes even with clubs 4-1, diamonds 4-1, and the diamond hook off, assuming the H:A is on. Given that there was no heart lead (as there was at the other table), there's a very good reason to believe that the H:A is onside or at least that we'll be able to guess hearts. In fact, I'd put something like 2-1 odds on the heart's being onside; leading from J9xx seems odd compared to Qxxx or Axxx. It's possible that he has AQxx and chose not to lead them (I wouldn't) but J9xx isn't wonderful, either. The risk involved is that RHO will find a heart shift. I was 100% certain that this could not happen. LHO would tell RHO that his dead cat can defend better than RHO if shifting were wrong. They played Smith Echo, but LHO falsecards his signals constantly, so RHO is not going to trust them. Still, I like Bob's line better. I don't think mine was hopeless, but most of the panel does. Oh, well. We lost by 40, so it didn't really matter much. (Phew.) If the vulnerability were different, I'd consider my line to be better than any alternatives given, at least against these particular opponents.

    Ed's right about winning the wrong first card.

Jeff Goldsmith, jeff@tintin.jpl.nasa.gov, March 6, 1998