Some problems from the Grand National Teams: Answers

1. favorable, you hold

    KJ10x A Kxxx xxxx

   You	LHO	CHO	RHO
   1	1	2	3
   Pass	Pass	Dbl	Pass
   ?

   Yes, you've taken one or two questionable actions so far, but what now?

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   DAVIDW

   I would not have opened, but it's close and I don't consider it horrible to do so. In my preferred methods, 2 is an inverted minor with a heart card (2 denies a heart card). That differentiation would be helpful here (as it often is, which is why I play that way) because a heart card is a negative feature opposite my hand. I will presume you do not play my way, and can only trust the vulnerable opponents to have the other heart honors based on their bidding.

   I would not consider passing, so I need to decide whether my hand is good offensively. Suppose partner has  Qxx xxx AQxxx Ax. That's not asking a lot; it leaves the opponents enough to justify their bidding, and yields a fine game. So I cannot afford to sign off in 4. Having limited my hand with my pass last round, I will bid 3 to convey my optimism and inform partern where cards are most valuable.

   BARRY

   3. This does not feel right for defense. 3NT with stiff honor is extreme though it might be right? I expect to be facing balanced 11-13 with 4 diamonds and 4 could be our best spot I suppose? With three club losers and  AQ xxx AQxxx xxx opposite? (Joke)

   MIKE

   Pass. This is difficult. [You want easy problems? --Jeff] Previous auction not particularly questionable IMO. This hand seems to fit better for the opponents than it does for us. RHO might well have a fifth heart to only bid 3 at the prevailing vulnerability, but more likely is just making a normal raise. Partner is just showing that his hand was a game force lacking four spades or the ability to fit jump. So partner is (1-3)-(2-4)-(3.75-5)-(1-4) (I think partner is very unlikely to have 5 clubs which are bad enough to preclude a fit jump). All this tells me is that there is a very wide range of hands for partner to make this largely undefined double. Maybe we can navigate a club ruff or, if partner has good clubs, we can get three rounds of trump played early. I don't expect the opponents to make and 5m could well be a struggle. Perhaps we can make 4 ( Axx xx AQxxx Axx or such... but that will also make 5 and nip 3 at least 1).

   KENT

   Pass. Partner could have forced in any number of ways or bid some number of diamonds. I expect this shows more than a minimum without extra diamond length. I don't think 2 promises a rebid on this auction.

   DAVIDC

   I think this is a "do something smart" double, not pure penalties, and I don't want to convert it with a singleton (admittedly a good singleton), so I make my most descriptive call of 3.

   ED

   I like 4. I would have bid 4 over 3 since I have a stiff heart. I play the pass over 3 as saying nothing and it includes the weakest hands (but could also made with a good hand waiting to hear partner's bid). Bidding 4 instead of pass is NF but it is better than a minimum.

   I don't care for pass of partner's double with a stiff heart. If partner has three hearts, pass will probably work out okay since we may get to lead three rounds of hearts before the opponents can get their ruffs in but there is too great a chance that partner has only two hearts and that they will make. Pass has more going for it at matchpoints.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Pass.

   WINNING ACTION

   Bid. Partner had  xx xx AQJxxx AQx. Both 5 and 3NT make (the K is onside). The bad guys only go for 200.

   CONSENSUS

   Action Votes Pass 3 3 3 4 1

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   It didn't occur to me that partner could be unbalanced; I expected some 5332 shape most of the time. If he's balanced, I think it's probably right to defend. If he can be unbalanced, I think it's probably right to bid, as they might make 3x.

   So what does partner do with his actual hand? He doesn't want to defend 3, but he has no stopper for notrump and does not want to go above 3NT, since that might well be the best game. I believe that 3 there is "last train to 3NT," no meaning other than I don't want you to pass 3x and 3NT is still in the picture. Playing that, then the double promises some willingness to play in 3x.

   Without such an agreement, this looks like a guess. Better methods are needed.

   If we don't pass, 3 seems pretty clearcut.

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2. Assign the blame for missing a pretty good slam:

   xxx Ax AQJx AJ109		AKJxxxx xx x Qxx

   West	East
   1NT (15-17)	2
   2	4
   4 (last train)	4
   Pass

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   DAVIDW

   It has to be all East's fault. West can hardly drive to slam with nothing in spades and half his hand in the splinter suit. West did make a minimally cooperative noise despite these negative features, so East should have bid once more. What made it hard for East was that there was nothing to cuebid, and Blackwood would not always tell him whether 6 was playable. Therefore I think East should have bid 5, and West would have known to go on.

   BARRY

   Too tough; no blame. East might have bid 5 over 4; West might have advanced with 5 over 4... both actions are reasonable. West might have been facing  AKQJxx Qxx x xxx. East might have been facing  Qxx Ax AJxx AJxx (a 'better' hand where 6 is almost no play on a heart lead)

   There are fewer hands where West is right to pass than East; 60-40 in favor of West to blame.

   MIKE

   West 50%. Or both 100%. I think West overcompensated for the QJ of diamonds wasted and could probably afford another move with excellent controls and a third trump (which could be worth a whole queen back). East should move again over a cooperating strong NT - 5 showing good trumps seems right. Are those West X's lower than the East ones (removing the primary extra chance on a heart lead)?

   KENT

   Neither. Reverse East's clubs and hearts and the slam doesn't look as good. East made a fairly aggressive try. Even subtracting the diamond QJ, those aces and third trump rate to be useful on this auction, so a last train 4 looks about right. East has to be concerned over 4 — he has already bid this hand to the max and needs to be facing almost exactly the given hand for the slam to be decent.

   DAVIDC

   (I assume 4 was a splinter? [Yup. --Jeff]) Hard to blame either partner. West had only ok trumps (xxx), a wasted QJ, and questionable value in the J10 yet didn't sign off. (Yes, West also had three bullets which are always very useful.) East had good trumps but otherwise a pretty minimal hand and doesn't have another call. If the question was, "who was in the better position to take another call?", I would say West and not East. I think the methods are to blame. Varis and I would bid these hands:

   1(2 way)-1 ()
   1(R, 16+HCP)-3 (8-11HCP, 6+, shortness)
   3(R)-3NT (7 card suit, singleton — could have been void)
   4(R)-4 (3 controls, A=2, K=1)
   4(2P unless partner has an exceptional hand which he doesn't)-P

   I don't believe I would relay past 4 with the West hand - make the Q the Q and 5 is in danger — but if I did
   4NT(R)-5(0 or 2 spade honors)
   5(R)-5(0 or 2 heart honors)

   See why relay is so much better!

   Now, even if I guess that partner has AK, then I know that partner can't have another K and the slam is not looking percentage. (I agree on the actual cards, slam looks something close to 75% on a lead and better on anything else.)

   ED

   I think the opening bidder's hand is too good to settle for game. Three aces, possible source of tricks in clubs, ruffing value in hearts and three trumps rather than two add up to enough for slam. If I didn't think I had enough to force to slam if not off 2 KC, I would jump to 5 over 4 showing, in my opinion, the three aces outside of trumps but some concern about trumps (I would choose this bid if I had xx in spades).

   Let's give East some example hands:

   1.  KQJxxx Kxx x Kxx
   2.  AKJxxx Qxx x Kxx
   3.  AJxxxxx KQ x Qxx
   4.  AKQxxx xxx x Kxx
   5.  KJxxxxx KQx x Kx

   Aren't these typical hands for him? I would be willing to be in 6 on each of these hands except hand E and KC might keep us out of 6 on that one (should responder show the Q in response to KC? [I think not, as we don't necessarily have a tenth trump. --Jeff]) even though 6 is not a bad contract. Switch the heart and club suits on any of these hands and some of the contracts become even better. On some of these hands you get your 12th trick on the OL.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   I was East.

   CONSENSUS

   West: 52%, East: 48%, but really "no one did anything wrong."

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   At first I was with the majority, who felt that no one did anything wrong. East has great trumps, but no side aces, and he looks like a minimum for his action so far. West has no trump honor and 7 HCP in partner's stiff and got to show some interest already.

   Mike thought the hands would get to slam after an old-fashioned 1NT-3 GF, and I do, too. West sees the 9th trump, aces, and good slam honor structure. He doesn't get to know about the diamond singleton, so he loves his hand.

   That brought me around to Ed's point of view. West really should not focus on the diamonds, which are not that awful vs. a stiff (imagine making the Q the Q and the J the J and is the hand better?), but on the doubleton heart and the club spots. One of those two features is going to be huge, because partner has to have length in one of those suits. West knows his partner has at most one ace and isn't going to bid past 4 as a result. Three small isn't that bad a holding (though 10xx would be nice, since heart ruffs are a possibility) vs. a 6- or 7-card suit. West's honor structure is very slammish; upon reflection, I think he should move past game, but it's close enough that I'd give little blame to anyone.

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3.  

   	109xx AKJ102 x KQJ
   		7x Qxx A8xx xxxx

   Declarer	Dummy
   1	1
   1	2*
   2	2
   3	4
   Pass

   Opening lead is the 3, fourth best. Declarer wins and immediately plays a diamond. Over to you.

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   DAVIDW

   The reflex action is to duck smoothly, and that's what I think most of us would do. However, I don't think it's correct this time. I am worried about the powerful dummy. I infer declarer's distribution to be 4-1-5-3. I took 3 to deny a club stopper. His hand might be something like  AQxx x KQJxx xxx, or the slightly weaker  KQxx x KQJxx xxx. If I duck the diamond, declarer will switch to clubs and can scramble two clubs, two hearts, one diamond, and possibly five trump tricks. But if I grab my ace, he has no chance.

   Is it possible for a diamond guess to be the key to this one? Let's give declarer  AKJx x KJxxx xxx. Even if he guesses wrongly, he can score two clubs, two hearts, and six trump tricks. I had better grab my trick.

   BARRY

   I win it — and play for partner to have top winners; I took too long at the table for the duck to be right. I'll shift to a club. Can declarer have  KQxx x KQJxx xxx? Not impossible. Might he have a hand without K(Q) and AQ — slightly more likely! ( KJxx x KJ10xx Axx) I wish I'd had time to think.

   MIKE

   I'd play small out of instinct. Perhaps that is wrong on reflection, but probably not. Even if partner is able to play three rounds of trumps after the A, declarer will set up either hand with a single ruff. Better to hope for a different miracle.

   KENT

   I'm hopping on this and leading a club, hoping partner has the KJx and the A. I think I'm missing something major—gave this one more thought than the rest combined.

   DAVIDC

   I take it that 2 was GF. Why not 4 by the way? I know ... my job is to defend, not bid. [Yeah, I don't vouch for opponents' actions. --Jeff]

   I grab A and play back a . Hoping for  AQxx x KQJx xxxx. Tough with no guarantees.

   ED

   The auction says declarer has the A so we need to play declarer for something like a)  AJxx x KJ10xx Axx and duck the hoping declarer goes after diamonds or b) Kxxx or Qxxx and take the A. I think the latter play is best since, if the former, declarer will still make most of the time by going after hearts or playing on a crossruff. I sympathize with the duck because, although I think it is the wrong play, it must be done without thinking to give declarer a guess and it is harder to get it right if you don't have time to think.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   I ducked.

   WINNING ACTION

   Declarer had  Kxxx x KQJxx Axx. Winning the A leads to an easy down one; ducking it lets the contract make.

   CONSENSUS

   Action Votes Fly 5 Duck 2

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I don't think it's relevant, because as several pointed out, one doesn't get the opportunity to reflect. At the table, one has to act in tempo, and I agree that it is natural to duck. It's probably right to fly on these cards, but probably one should be ducking unless one is a lightning-fast analyst.

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4.  

   	AJ76 xx 9x AKQJx
   	98x KQx KQ10x 5xx

   Dummy	Declarer
   1	1
   1	1NT
   2NT	3NT
   Pass

   Opening lead is the 9. Plan the play. Assume a first round lead to a red face card holds.

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   DAVIDW

   I would not have led to a red face card. I would have played the 9, floating it if not covered. If the nine is covered, I am in good shape. It seems almost certain that LHO has the heart ace, as he refrained from leading the unbid suit. I'm not so confident about the diamond position, but I think my best chance is to let LHO win this trick. Even if the nine loses to the jack, LHO will have learned little and may well get out with a club that I have conveniently left in his hand. Then a second diamond, and I stll have a sure heart entry.

   BARRY

   I would take two clubs and play a diamond to the king, then run the clubs and pitch two spades from hand and play a diamond to the queen. I need one ace right and West's defense suggests major-suit holdings (but nothing about A).

   MIKE

   I think it is very close between winning and reeling off 5 clubs and hoping the opponents are under more pressure than I and floating the 9 at trick 2. I kind of like the latter approach better, although that can cause me to go down with the A onside.

   KENT

   Diamond up, 8 from hand, hoping to take two spades and two red tricks.

   DAVIDC

   I can also assume that RHO follows to the lead? [Only David asked! And moreover, no one wondered if the 10 had appeared. Yes, RHO followed and didn't play the 10. --Jeff] to the Q, to the K, 9 to a smooth duck and I play K. I may have outsmarted myself (I am good at doing that) but I am guessing that LHO didn't lead a because he has good hearts and didn't want to blow a trick. And some percentage of the time the defense is going to help me get the suit right by either not ducking the Q or covering the 9. I realize I am not making the best percentage play but I think I am making my "at the table" play.

   ED

   9. A passive OL is usually based on high cards and specifically I would expect the A to be offsides. Ignoring the knowledge that a red face card will win, I would think the 9 at T2 give me my best shot. If it loses to the J and the defense continues passive with clubs, I have nine tricks unless they then switch to and can get two spades. If the J is onsides, they can't beat me.

   If I instead lead a to the king and then go to the dummy and lead another diamond to the queen, I will make if the A is onsides but almost surely fail if it is off. It is not a terribly hard play to duck the first with the offsides ace, especially if also holding the A.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   I took Kent's line, which I think is inferior to trying to guess diamonds. I used the same inference that suggested the A was offside to judge that the spade honors were onside. Wrong.

   WINNING ACTION

   Float the 9. LHO had  xx A10x Axxx 10987. Yes, he led the 9 from 10987. No, they didn't play Rusinow.

   CONSENSUS

   Plan Votes Float 9 3 Lead to top honors 2 Attack spades from hand 2

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I'm for the winning line. The 9 might get covered. And if it doesn't, and it loses to the A, you are in line to make an overtrick. I don't see an 7-8% edge to any play, so the overtrick is the best vigorish you can get. For some reason, declarer only made 9 tricks at the other table after floating the 9 at T2.

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