Some problems from the Fall Nationals/Answers

1. IMPs, short matches, both vul

    Ax xx Qxxxx xxxx

   RHO	You	LHO	CHO
   2	Pass	4	Dbl
   Pass	?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   Pass [I knew Marshall would pass. He often proclaims the virtues of such actions. --Jeff]

   ROBB

   4NT

   KENT

   Pass

   BARRY

   4NT; yes 5 might work better but my experience is that pulling the double is right and I am ambivalent between the choices. the 4-4 fit might be critical here though the chance of one discard mattering is small -- but two is also possible?  Qxx Ax AKx KQJxx.

   As Bart Bramley and I discussed, the single biggest IMP winner I have experienced at top level bridge is pulling these doubles even in marginal cases. [I was there; I brought up the hand to Barry, Bart, and Curtis Cheek. Bart and Barry thought it was very clear to bid, but weren't sure what. Curtis thought it was extremely close and chose to pass. But if he bid, he was sure 4NT was right. --Jeff]

   MIKE

   This is a difficult problem and largely depends on partnership style. If partner is going to double with semi-balanced 15 counts in this situation, then it is probably right to pass. If partner will only double with a takeout double, then it probably best to bid.

   My style is for double to be more for takeout and just suck up the loss when they are stealing from your strong no trump by passing. So I'm a bidder (5), but with sympathy for the pass.

   [My style is to double on each type of hand figuring that partner will bid at the five-level fairly rarely and if he does, converting a small plus into a small minus, it's just too bad. That's the price I'll pay to get some medium-sized numbers a fair bit of the time. That does not mean partner should assume I have a balanced hand; he should assume a takeout double. At matchpoints, it's a slam dunk to do this, even if you don't tell your partner{—}the field is doing it, so there will be no protection for your down one or two undoubled. Therefore, there's no loss even if partner bids and goes down. --Jeff]

   ED

   Pass. One fewer heart or one more length card in a minor suit would get me to bid.

   DAVID

   I pass. Would bid 4 if it were my diamond suit.

   BOBBY

   I bid 4NT. I think this is pretty clear.

   JJ

   I think this is the toughest problem of the set. Pass, 4NT, and 5 all have merit. I have a gut reaction to bidding as opposed to passing. 5 vs 4NT? 5 has the advantage of playing the stronger/longer sometimes when pard is equal length in the minors. With reversed minor holdings this wouldn't be near as close. However, when she is unequal she may have as many as 3 more s than s.

   I'll opt for 4NT.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Pass. I agree with Ed's judgment exactly, or at least I did before this hand.

   CONSENSUS

   Pass	5
   4NT	4
   5	1

   Bidding vs. passing is 50/50.

   WINNING ACTION

   Bid. If you bid 4NT or 5, you play 5 making six vs.  QJxx — AKxxx AJ109.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   It's close, but I think I'm now a bidder. I'd pass at matchpoints, though. At IMPs, I think I'll lose a few IMPs much of the time by bidding, but will gain a whole boatload from time to time.

   Mike's point about partnership style is very good. On one point I disagree with him, though; I think one cannot afford to "suck it up" on very good semi-balanced hands. The IMP scale rewards small gains, so if you gain 3 or 7 IMPs half a dozen times and lose 15 once, you still come out well ahead. This is not to say I think it's right to double with just trumps; of course not. But a balanced 18-count pretty much has to double or bleed IMPs too fast. I suppose there is an optimal calibration of when to double and when to pull. I don't know what it is, but roughly what Ed suggests seems likely to be close. If you have a six-card suit to bid or a stiff in their suit or three small in their suit and a side stiff, then it's probably right to bid. With no shortness and no six-card suit, it's probably right to pass. This might be a good topic for a simulation.

   ---

   If you pass, what do you lead?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   lowest diamond

   ROBB

   A

   KENT

   Lead a trump. My hand was on the spade ace.

   BARRY

   The A — yes I know what will happen.

   MIKE

   It looks like the A lead is your best chance for a multi-trick set. The K is most likely to show up in dummy or partner's hand. A diamond lead is a close second.

   ED

   A. I am seduced by the possibility of getting a spade ruff (although I would prefer to have Jx instead of xx. I should be well-placed at T2 to know if a spade ruff is a reasonable possibility.

   DAN

   Spade ace. Wouldn't be all that surprised if this one was unanimous. [Unanimous? Never happen. --Jeff]

   DAVID

   Start A. Maybe I get a ruff. Maybe dummy has KJxx and I speed up the play.

   JJ

   I know on the actual hand the A gave away the contract. So what! That's a limited sample size. I stick with the A lead anyway.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   A. If that's wrong, perhaps I'll know to what to shift at T2 before it's too late.

   CONSENSUS

   A	8
   x	1
   x	1

   WINNING ACTION

   Only a spade lead lets it make. All other leads lead to +200. -790 was a very common score, by the way.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   The A seems like the normal well-reasoned lead. Unlucky that it was the only losing play. Oddly, my teammates were more forgiving of my pass than of my lead. Then again, they were +730, so +200 was quite enough for them!

   ---

2. BAM, none vul

    AKQxx x x KQ9xxx

   CHO	RHO	You	LHO
   1	2	3	Pass
   3	Pass	3	Pass
   4	Pass	?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   4NT. I can' t stand a 5 response but I don't see how partner could be missisng 2 aces. If he had  xx AKQxx Kxx xxx or QJx, he would have bid 3NT over 3. Maybe he has  Jx AKQxx QJ Jxxx, but that seems improbable. Blackwood might get us to 7, also unlikely. My first thought was to bid 4 followed by 5 since I don't think 4 now would be forcing. But that might get us to seven, missing the ace of diamonds.

   ROBB

   4. Don't have enough controls to Blackwood.

   KENT

   4. Not sure what will happen from here. Even though I have a three loser hand, I don't think I have a lot of extras for this sequence. The magic mystery non-cue of 4 will at least propel partner if he is worried about diamond losers

   BARRY

   4. Then over 4, 5. I plan to try to get spades back on the agenda. At this form of scoring I might have responded 2 — damn the torpedoes! [Barry is the first to suggest that 3 wasn't right. Upon reflection, I agree. --Jeff]

   MIKE

   This looks a lot like a problem from the previous nationals. 4 seems straighforward enough. What am I missing? [Mike has a good memory. There was a hand at Anaheim on which I bid 5 on cards a lot like these. --Jeff]

   ED

   RKC if a one keycard response doesn't get me past 5; otherwise, 4 to be followed by 4 over 4 and willing to quit at 5.

   DAN

   4NT (for me, RKC 1430.)

   DAVID

   I could make 6, I could make 3. I bid 4 to describe my hand. It didn't get any better in the auction.

   BOBBY

   4 if 4 is Ace-asking. If not, then 4NT if we're playing 1430. Otherwise, 4 bidding out my shape.

   JJ

   I would bid 4, but have sympathy for 5. I think that 3 was a 2nd best bid. Even though experience has taught us to bid our 6 card suit first, in this case I think that 2 is best. Jx or xxx will provide adequate trump support. Plus, we could have had to put up with even more premption than we actually did. At this form of scoring, it's important to get the majors focused. We're sort of end played now, as 4 is NF.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   I don't remember, but we got to 6. I think I bid 4 and heard 6 from partner.

   CONSENSUS

   4NT	3
   4	4
   4	3

   WINNING ACTION

   You need to drive to 6. Partner is something like  xxx AJxxx Kxx Ax. The blacks behave, so 12 tricks are available in either of them.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I am certain the right bid is 5. That has to be forcing by logic; you are prepared for a preference to 6. It's essentially a reverse. In this case, it'll get us to 6 making to tie the board. I didn't think of 5 at the table. At dinner, my partner did. Then he forgot when given the problem! Oddly, while JJ mentioned it, no one chose 5. It seems to me that once one has thought of 5, one surely would choose it.

   Some have suggested bidding 2 instead of 3. I considered that, but somehow, there just has to be merit in bidding one's longest suit with a good hand.

   ---

3. IMPs, short matches

    Kx Q9 J97x KJ432

   RHO	LHO
   1	1
   2	2 (4th suit artificial and game forcing)
   2NT	3NT
   Pass

   What do you lead?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   K, I guess. Everything else looks worse.

   ROBB

   Total guess. Try K.

   KENT

   K. If partner happens to have a club honor (or two!), it won't be the first time.

   BARRY

   2. It may cost a trick but so may everything else and this has some upside to it.

   MIKE

   What a headache. Bad club spots make that lead less attractive, yet diamonds and spades are asking for trouble. It is close between the Q and a club. I guess a club gives us our best shot.

   ED

   K. Any suit lead could give up a trick and a tempo but I think the K is likely to be the long run winner. I will not feel good about this if declarer starts laughing after seeing QJTxx in the dummy (opposite his stiff ace). [Good call! I led the K and declarer started laughing. --Jeff]

   DAN

   Looks as though it's this or the heart Queen but I am continually being surprised by just how often 4th best of your longest and strongest works, so I'll table the club 3.

   DAVID

   3. Fourth from my longest and strongest. Maybe partner has spades, maybe he doesn't, maybe he has QTx.

   BOBBY

   low Diamond, I guess. I don't have a high confidence in any lead.

   JJ

   I lead the K hoping for some decent spots out of pard. If I felt like I needed a board, I'd try the double card before leading. Obviously this works out badly if pard is broke. [And they redouble. --Jeff]

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   K.

   CONSENSUS

   K	6
   x	4
   x	1

   WINNING ACTION

   Dummy has great spades, AJ109x. Any red suit lead beats 3NT; any black suit lead lets it make. I don't remember the actual hand.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I like the K lead still. They are prepared for a heart lead. Fourth from your longest and strongest is OK, I suppose. All in all, I think no one has a good idea of what to lead on auctions like this. A similar auction is 1-1; 1-1NT. Leading a club is often wrong; clubs is frequently the opponents' best fit. Sometimes, however, it's the only effective lead.

   ---

4. IMPs, both vul, short matches

    KJ6x — AKJ106 AJ6x

   You	LHO	CHO	RHO
   1	3	Pass	Pass
   Dbl	Pass	4	Pass
   ?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   I have changed my mind back and forth. I think partner's bidding is consistent with  Qx xxxx Qxxx Qxx, but partner seldom has just what you want and I think  xxx axx xxx xxxx is more likely, so I pass.

   ROBB

   Pass. Don't understand how I can bid more with 5 losers, even with a good fit, which isn't guaranteed (but likely).

   KENT

   5. Partner might have lots of them. If I bid 4 and he bids 5, I have no idea what's right! I'd really like to pass, as partner might have a 3334 two count, but having all three 6s sways me in favor of bidding. (see screen name [answer6, a math reference. --Jeff])

   BARRY

   Pass. Going down 500 costs as much as missing a game. Not that I expect to get doubled but I do think I've bid most of my hand.

   MIKE

   I have an extra trump and no hearts at all. Partner will have 4+ diamonds in this auction, so I am laydown for game opposite the black queens. He could easily have an ace and a king, making us a favorite for slam. RHO's failure to raise makes me think partner probably has some length in hearts, but his failure to pass my double suggest something in the other suits.

   I think this is just good enough to advance 4.

   ED

   With no 4 bid on my right, I expect partner to have three or four hearts to go along with three or four diamonds. I will probably need two useful queens or more from partner to make game. Since partner would be unlikely to bid game with some near laydown hands (e.g.,  QTx xxx Q9xx QTx) as well as many hands that offer a decent play for game, I'll take a shot at the vulnerable game bonus.

   DAN

   5 Why? Would 4 get me 4 and a perfecto?

   DAVID

   Pass and hope nobody doubles. I have 5 pretty sure tricks. Can partner provide the other 6?

   BOBBY

   5. This hand is probably not quite as good as it looks, but it's good enough to be in game.

   JJ

   PASS. Sure pard might have  Qx xxx Qxxx KTxx, but he might have  xxx xxxx xxx xxx. I have a 5-loser hand; I'll go quietly. Sometimes preempts work.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Pass

   CONSENSUS

   Pass	6
   4	1
   5	1
   5	3

   Bidding vs. passing: 6-5

   WINNING ACTION

   Bid. Partner has the key three queens and out. 5 rolls.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I still have no idea. No one gave great reasons for their choice. Everyone is guessing. Preempts work sometimes.

   ---

5. IMPs, favorable, short matches

    A7xx 654 Ax 109xx

   You	LHO	CHO	RHO
   Pass	2*	4	4
   ?

   2 was Precision, 11-15, 3 suited, short diamonds

   ---

   MARSHALL

   5.

   ROBB

   Pass

   KENT

   Pass. I won't double--partner may have a lot of hearts and out, especially at this vulnerability. Thought about bidding 5, but partner can't ruff diamonds and the spade ace is probably catching air.

   BARRY

   I'd bid 5. Why was that not an option? [It was, but there won't be an opening lead problem if you bid. --Jeff]

   MIKE

   Doubling is out, holding a ruffing value three trumps and two aces - a super dummy while RHO is almost certainly void in hearts. It is hard to imagine holding a better dummy for hearts on this auction, so the question is whether to advance 5 or 5. Since partner may still hold a spade, I believe flashing the slam signal is best. Is there a chance partner might think 5 is natural here? As a passed hand, I think not. 5.

   ED

   Dbl. As to bidding 5, partner will not be able to ruff any diamond losers in my hand and I think eleven tricks in hearts is unlikely.

   DAN

   Pass

   DAVID

   Double.

   BOBBY

   I pass.

   JJ

   5, assuming pard is up to working this is a cue for . 5 is a close 2nd choice.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Dbl. AFTER figuring out what to lead.

   CONSENSUS

   Pass	4
   Dbl	3
   5	2
   5	2

   WINNING ACTION

   bid 5. Partner has  — AQJ10xxx KQxxx x. He said he'd bid 5 if I passed, but passed when I doubled.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I think passing is normally wrong; I know how to beat it, so I might as well up the penalty. Unlucky that this convinces partner not to take his normal action. Bidding 5 is certainly reasonable. I don't like the IMP odds on it, though, at these colors. I am pretty sure we are beating 4x on a heart lead. If we get it only one (+200) we lose only six to +450. If we get it two, we gain two. If 5 goes down, we lose seven or 12. Bidding seems wrong, even if I think we are making 5 more often than not.

   ---

   If you pass or double, what do you lead?

   ---

   MARSHALL

   A

   ROBB

   Lead a heart. I think that tapping is important here. opps control the clubs, and the diamond quality is unknown. Hoping for 1 diamond, 2 spades in the wash, and one trick for partner.

   KENT

   lead a low trump

   BARRY

   small spade — tempted by A and another but I think I'll get in. Unless dummy has diamond void.

   ED

   I'd like to lead a small trump which could lead to the biggest set but I'd better take the best chance of beating the contract which will be with a heart lead. I expect partner to have very strong hearts and probably four or five diamonds on the side.

   DAN

   Lead a small trump.

   DAVID

   Small Spade.

   BOBBY

   Lead a low trump.

   JJ

   What do I lead? I DON'T LEAD!! This could easily be a double game swing. We might make a slam. I bid!!! If forced to lead, I'd try a , hoping it tapped declarers hand. (Dummy is more likely than normal to have four spades (not 3415 shape) because of pard's 4 call (making 4315 somewhat more likely for the 2 bidder).

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   small heart. Ed's reasoning exactly.

   CONSENSUS

   x	4
   x	5
   A	1

   WINNING ACTION

   lead a heart. You need to tap the long hand to beat this.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   A heart lead is a standout. Tapping the long hand should get us control of the hand in the end, which will beat it. If we are cashing a club or a heart (right) then we can get it a bunch. First priority is the beat.

   ---

6. IMPs, short matches

   	AK9 K9x xx AK432
   	108xx Q6xxx 10xx x

   LHO	CHO	RHO	You
   1	Dbl!	1NT	2
   Pass	3	All Pass

   Partner's double showed 15+ HCP, usually balanced.

   Opening lead is the 5, 3rd & 5th. Plan the play.

   ---

   MARSHALL

   I wouldn't have bid 3, but the play is the problem. I think I would win, ruff a club and lead a heart to the king (which should hold), ace of clubs, discarding a diamond, and a heart ducked (hopefully to the doubleton ace). Plan to ruff another club to establish the 5th club — sort of a dummy reversal.

   ROBB

   Win club, lead diamond, hope they guess trumps for me. Or that I get info to guess.

   KENT

   Cash two high clubs, pitching a diamond, cash one high spade, ruff a club, cross to the other high spade, and lead the fourth club, pitching another diamond. I'm playing LHO for ace and a heart, probably 3253 distribution.

   BARRY

   Here I would not have bid 2. Wait for 2 to come back to me and then try 2. [Sorry, Barry, but you may well never get another chance; partner isn't likely to act over 1NT. Then again, the big win is to double 1NT. Yeah, right. --Jeff]

   And partner should not have bid 3 — a terrible bid if he has shown 15+ already he is minimum in shape and a queen to spare in HCP. [I agree mildly — I would not have raised, but I don't think it's terrible, just a little pushy. --Jeff]

   Win A K (diamond) and ruff a club. Heart to K, and another club pitching another diamond.

   If K loses to ace I'll try the double spade finesse with more hope than expectation.

   MIKE

   My instinct is to play A ruff a club and play a heart to the king, playing RHO for Jxx and LHO for Ax. If LHO has AJx and can draw trumps I'm down immediately. Oh well.

   ED

   A, x, to K... K wins: K pitching , x ruffed... this line should prevail as long as LHO started with two or three hearts to the ace K loses: pull one round of trumps when in but ruffing small beforehand if entry knocked out

   DAN

   I'll play a diamond off the board and see what happens. If they start playing trump, I'll pitch my third diamond on a club and play to set up clubs. If they don't, I'll ruff a diamond, ruff clubs good and scramble from there. How exactly will depend on what else has come to light.

   DAVID

   RHO appears to have a Club card and a top Diamond so probably does not have the A. My general line is to win the club, play on Diamonds, and use two Club ruffs as entries, one to lead to the K and the other to ruff a . If at trick 2, RHO wins the continues a , I will ruff in my hand, play a to the K and play a second . If RHO wins again, and plays a , I hope I guess well.

   BOBBY

   As an aside, I don't think partner has a 3 bid after a power double and a minimal response by me (especially taking into account RHO's bid which probably shows a lack of understanding of what double really means, but 6 or so scattered points).

   Well it seems like the best line is to play LHO for Ax of hearts. Win the Ace, ruff a club, low club to the king. If it wins, cash the K, pitching a diamond, and lead a low trump, ducking all around. At this point, I think I can manage things so that I only lose two diamonds, a spade, and a heart.

   JJ

   2 similiar lines have appeal to me.

   1st choice: Win the A and lead a small to the T. 2nd choice: Win the A, ruff a , lead the T out of hand. Both lines force the defense to react to the possibility of a ruff in the dummy. If they allow me to ruff a in the dummy, then I'll pitch a on the K. If they take away my ruff, then I'll pitch a on the K and try to pick up for 1 loser.

   Choice 2 might leave me in a better position in the end game. Choice 1 (my line) will occasionally induce inaccurate defense if RHO holds KJxx and ducks when the trick is best won in his hand.

   I don't have much experience w/ these methods, but I think the strong hand should pass 2. Pard is supposed to bid 2 whenever he has 6 hearts, and on very little strength w/ 5 hearts. Pard didn't hit 1NT, and this deck seems like it has more than 40 HCP already.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Two clubs, pitching a diamond, play diamonds to try to figure out who has the A. I'm sure that's not best.

   CONSENSUS

   none! That's very unusual for a play problem. There are a lot of variations available on this hand — surprisingly many.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   Shortly afterwards, I figured out the line I liked best: two clubs, pitching a diamond, ruff a club, spade up, club pitching a diamond. That has an interesting elegance to it.

   I now like Ed's line better, because his might win even if hearts are misguessed. He notes: [A, ruff, heart to the K losing, heart back...]
   T4: win Q
   T5: A
   T6: K pitching
   T7: ruff
   T8: K
   T9: 5th pitching S
   T10: ruff.
   That totals nine tricks... the 3rd diamond and RHO's trump go on the same trick.

   This is a very difficult hand to play, to plan, or to judge. Some of the panelists lines work, some don't. LHO was 3253 with the A, so if you really want, you can figure out if they can manage a trump promotion on each line.

   As far as the bidding goes, while several panelists didn't like 3, it's really not that bad. You haven't promised a heart fit by doubling, and this is a pretty good dummy for hearts. I think it's a little aggressive. I'd pass, but it's definitely not horrible to bid.

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