If this were IMPs, I'd either open 1NT or rebid 2NT,
since getting to 3NT when both 3NT and 4 make is no
disaster. At matchpoints, reaching 3NT when 4 makes
more tricks is going to be a zero, because the field
is almost sure to open 1 and rebid 3 or sometimes 2.
If my minors were reversed and I were playing the 2
gadget, I'd rebid 2 in the hopes of finding a 5-3
heart fit.
At the table, I chose 2 figuring that at worst, I'll
end up with a plus score and get some matchpoints, but
I've concluded that that wasn't good matchpoint analysis.
The field is going to rebid 3, even though I think it's
not a good bid. The way to get the most matchpoints is
probably to bid along with the field. If 3 or 4 is
a terrible spot and we reach it on this auction, I'll
have lots of company. If it's a good spot and I miss
it via some other choice, I'm getting a zero. At least
if I'm in the normal spot, I might be able to gain a trick
in the play and get a good result that way.