Two from a Club Game/Answers

1. matchpoints, you hold
   

    J10764 J9 1042 AK6

   LHO	RHO
   1	1NT (forcing)
   2	2NT
   3NT	Pass

   What do you lead?

   ---

   Consensus was the J, which is what I led at the table. Not best as the cards lay; partner had QJxxxx and not much else. Instead of down 2, declarer made 7. That jass-menel is pretty seductive; I think declarer rates to have club length far more than partner. I'd do it again.

   ...just the time to have a kibitzer sit down...

2. 	KQ J7x AKx AKJ7x
   	Axx AK9x QJxx 9x

   After a fairly hopeless auction to 6NT, LHO leads a nondescript spade. Plan the play

   b) at IMPs.

   The IMP line is pretty clear, I think. Cross to the A and play a small heart to the Jack. That produces 3 heart tricks 84% of the time. In reserve is the club finesse and a showup squeeze. It's right to cash the A first, since RHO cannot profitably play a second round, and if an honor drops, you are gin.

   84% for hearts
   50% club hook
   6% club stiff honor
   ?% for the showup
   

   All told, this line is about 94%.

   a) at matchpoints

   This one is hard. With 35 HCP, it's a decent bet that the field will be in 6NT. There'll be a few outliers in grands and maybe someone will have an accident, but one has to think about the overtrick.

   The best line for the overtrick, I think, is to cross to the A and take a club hook. If that works, we are playing for seven. If it fails, we still have 3-3 clubs (35.5%), the Q's dropping doubleton (16%) or a squeeze (?% since a good RHO can continue clubs blowing up the entry to dummy).

   50% club hook
   35.5% clubs 3-3
   16% Q drops
   ?% squeeze
   

   I'd guess that makes this line 80% to make. Seven needs the club hook AND one of the other things (the squeeze is better now, since there's no question of misdefense)

   35.5% clubs 3-3
   16% Q drops
   about 40% squeeze
   

   Of the 50% that the club hook works, 65-70% will make seven. Call it 33%. That means that this line is about

   20% down
   47% makes six
   33% makes seven
   

   I think that makes it a clear favorite at matchpoints.

   Guess what? In reality, the IMP line scores up six, and the matchpoint line goes down one. I was playing in a club game with a weak partner, and he patronized me after this hand, saying, "it was just a guess," thinking, "my partner is an idiot!"

   The bottom line: "Matchpoints is a both_of(hard, dumb) game."