LHO | RHO |
1NT (forcing) | |
2NT | |
3NT | Pass |
...just the time to have a kibitzer sit down...
KQ J7x AKx AKJ7x | ||
Axx AK9x QJxx 9x |
After a fairly hopeless auction to 6NT, LHO leads a nondescript spade. Plan the play
b) at IMPs.
The IMP line is pretty clear, I think. Cross to
the
84% for hearts
50% club hook
6% club stiff honor
?% for the showup
All told, this line is about 94%.
a) at matchpoints
This one is hard. With 35 HCP, it's a decent bet that the field will be in 6NT. There'll be a few outliers in grands and maybe someone will have an accident, but one has to think about the overtrick.
The best line for the overtrick, I think, is to cross to
the
50% club hook
35.5% clubs 3-3
16%
?% squeeze
I'd guess that makes this line 80% to make. Seven needs the club hook AND one of the other things (the squeeze is better now, since there's no question of misdefense)
35.5% clubs 3-3
16%
about 40% squeeze
Of the 50% that the club hook works, 65-70% will make seven. Call it 33%. That means that this line is about
20% down
47% makes six
33% makes seven
I think that makes it a clear favorite at matchpoints.
Guess what? In reality, the IMP line scores up six, and the matchpoint line goes down one. I was playing in a club game with a weak partner, and he patronized me after this hand, saying, "it was just a guess," thinking, "my partner is an idiot!"
The bottom line: "Matchpoints is a both_of(hard, dumb) game."