Some problems from Bakersfield: Answers

Thanks to all the panelists---this was one of the most deadly sets of problems I've ever seen.

1. IMPS, none vul, you hold  AQ9xxxxx --- QJ 109x

   LHO	CHO	RHO	You
   2	Dbl	3	4
   Pass	6	Pass	?

   2 was weak and natural.
   You are in a new partnership.
   Would you have bid 4?
   

   ---

   ADAM

   Yes, I'd have bid 4. What other options did I have?

   ALAN

   Yes, I like 4.

   CURT

   I also agree with 4.

   KENT

   Yes.

   DAVID

   I would probably have bid 4.

   ROLF

   Sure.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   wasn't there

   CONSENSUS

   4 was obvious.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   4 was obvious, but it's a huge underbid. Oppose some normal minimums, 6 is laydown, for example,  Kxx Axxx x AKxxx. If partner holds  Kxxx Axxx --- AKxxx, we claim a grand, and partner would pass 4. I think it's a tough call. I might bid 5. That's natural and invitational because there is no other slam try available. Bidding 4 then correcting 4 to 4 gives a choice of games between spades and clubs. Is the 5-level safe? Not necessarily; if partner has  KJxx KQxx xx KQJ, a pretty normal (but crappy) double, we'll be down off the top. ...If they cash the right ace I'd guess the 5-level rates to be safe the vast majority of the time. however, so it might be worth risking. I think it's close, but the panel strongly disagrees with me.

   ---

   What now?

   ---

   ADAM

   Partner should have great hearts since 5 should be forcing, but OTOH he promised spade tolerance when he doubled. Unwilling to put down an 8 card suit in the dummy I bid 6. If it's wrong I'll apologize. [Hmmmm...5 forcing? In some auctions, I'd play that, but I'm not sure about this one. Anyone know a good rule that'd cover it? --Jeff]

   ALAN

   Pass. I'll probably be the only one to do so, but I expect something at least similar with a better suit. I'm not positive partner will accept this if I'm wrong but I still pass.

   CURT

   I think Pass is normal and correct.

   KENT

   Pass. Web and I decided that 4 on these auctions promises significant spade length--usually 6. I have my bid, partner wasn't interested.

   DAVID

   If partner is really basing his 6 bid on my spade response then he must have someting like  Kxx AKQJxxx x AQ, but if he has that, why didn't he bid keycard, Probably because he was afraid of a correction to 6 or he wanted to protect his club holding. Someone once told me that dummies should not put side 8 card suits on the table. So...this dummy bids 6.

   ROLF

   Pass. WTP?

   MIKE

   Partner's sequence must show more that one playable strain. The 4 bid must have excited him or he would have bid 6 on the previous round. Partner rates to have something like Kx or JT. Therefore it is clear to bid 6. Maybe even 7, but that would be too much of a stab in the dark.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   wasn't there

   CONSENSUS

   none, 4 pass and 3 bid 6.

   WINNING ACTION

   bid something. Partner has  --- AKQ9xx A AKJxxx. Amazingly enough, at each table, the bidding started as in the problem. My teammate, reasonably enough, passed 6 and when hearts were 5-2, got -50. My opponent bid 6 and passed 7 and when clubs were 2-2, got +1440. This hand was probably the swing hand for the event; we were in 2nd playing the leaders. Lose 16 knocked us out.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   Not sure. Partner should have an enormous 1-suiter in hearts. My A should be working; anyone who makes a takeout double with a void in an unbid spade suit is asking for big trouble. Is that enough? Hard to say, probably not. I guess, therefore, that I should pass. Tough hand.

   ---

   What would they have done with the 6-6 hand?

   ---

   ALAN

   3

   CURT

   4

   KENT

   5NT

   DAVID

   4 (clubs and a major)

   MIKE

   double

   JEFF

   4NT

   Just about everyone disagreed with the takeout double, but only Kent did something reasonable, I think. I've concluded (and decided at the time) that 4NT was the clearly correct choice. If partner bids one of my suits, I'll raise him to seven. If partner bids 5, I'll bid only 6 and let him guess what to do. As it turns out, he'll either pass or raise, neither of which is particularly against the odds; 6 and 7 have about the same expectation.

   ---

2. IMPs, both vul

   	AQJxx --- AQJxx xxx
   xx AKQ10 K109x xxx		x xxxx x AKQJ10xx
   	Kxxx2 Jxxxx xxx ---

   East	South	West	North
   Pass	Pass	1	1
   2	4	Pass	Pass
   5	Pass	Pass	Dbl
   All Pass

   T1: 2...N/S -750 vs. their slam.

   a) apportion the blame
   

   ---

   ADAM

   Tough. I'll say 75% North, since his mistake(s) was (were) the most costly. [Plural? Bidding 1 and passing 4 seem pretty normal. --Jeff]

   ALAN

   North 90%. The only reason I give South any blame is because he might have chosen 5. After leaping to 4 that would not be a terrible bid, IMO.

   CURT

   I find it hard to criticize the bidding, because every action seems reasonable despite the unpleasant result. I probably would have bid 5 over 5 in front of partner, but that's far from clear. So make it 52% south 48% north.

   KENT

   Nothing like a cold slam off the AKQ of two suits. South has a lot of potential--the club void and fifth trump could cover a lot of losers. Diamonds rate to be favorably placed. Nonetheless, I'm not bidding 5 over 5 with either hand. Did NS get to slam at the other table? [No, they were +1050 on a very different auction. --Jeff]

   DAVID

   North 80 South 20, North should have bid on as South could hardly have more than 2 clubs. South gets 20 percent, because it is highly unlikely that this hand is being set with spade tricks, and the K is the only possible reentry to his hand if another defense is called for. Which red suit I would have led is another issue. [I would have led the K. --Jeff]

   ROLF

   Seems like 100% to South. North has the tougher decision. were never mentioned. He has no idea what his void is worth. It's much easier for South as he has the -void. Notice that North cannot be sure that partner is short in as west never raised his partner. I would have bid 5 over 5, as 4 hardly creates a forcing pass situation.

   MIKE

   South gets 55% of the blame for the bidding and another 5% for the opening lead. North gets the other 40%.

   A bunch of things went wrong here. South might well have bid 5 over 5. Barring that, I think South should have bid 5 once partner shows a good overcall with the double of 5. North should have bid 5, since South rates to hold 1 or at most 2 clubs, which means that 5 or even 6 spades could easily be gin... the lack of a fit showing jump by South should have encouraged North to bid more. South did well to not make a fit showing jump in hearts! [If South even considered showing hearts, it'd've been an overbid. Noting the lack of one is a good point. --Jeff]

   The lead was hopeless. South should lead the K. That would at least produce a plus score. It is impossible to construct a layout where the 2 is the right lead. It had everything to lose and nothing to gain.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   I was North

   CONSENSUS

   	North	South
   Alan:	90	10
   David:	80	20
   Adam:	75	25
   Curt:	48	52
   Mike:	40	60
   Rolf:	0	100
   Average:	55	45

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I think only the lead was a clear error. I think North's double is more maligned than it should be. Passing is not an option; North knows that on normal defense, 5 is going down unless diamonds zip-split, and probably is going down even then. If partner can work out that a red lead is called for, there's a chance for +800. -750 is almost impossible. To bid 5 over 5 is a tough call. Partner is supposed to be short in clubs, but is also supposed to be short in diamonds. (RHO opened them and you have five. And LHO bid 5 vulnerable, so he probably has a diamond fragment.) I'm not convinced that South must have two or fewer clubs, but even with 2 clubs, if he's 5512, 5 could get held to its seven trump tricks. This wouldn't be a "you be the judge" if N/S went +1100. In any case, the double by North means "I think we were making 4," not "I have clubs nutted." Sometimes partner will be able to make the right decision with that information.

   Several would bid 5 over 5 as South. I wouldn't. With six top red losers, we could go for our lives, and if 5 is down, that could be very very expensive. It's far less clear, however, after the double. I don't know if South should bid then. There's often something to be said for failing to defend with a trump void. Partner always is disappointed by them.

   ---

   b) which was the worst single action?

   ---

   ADAM

   2 - a clear error, the king has to be better. I don't like North's bidding, but there were hands where it could have been right.

   ALAN

   The double by N.

   CURT

   I do blame south for not leading the K, which would have given them a chance to beat 5. Obviously it's hard to assign percentages because the K would net only +200 whereas bidding on might get as much as +1430. I guess I blame north a little for not bidding on over 5 too. 2 worst action.

   KENT

   Not beating 5. South knows that a low spade lead blows up any reentry to his hand, so if he leads that suit, it should be the king. North dumps the queen under it, gets a heart ruff, down one. Either red suit lead on the go is mighty deep.

   DAVID

   I think that North's double was the worst call.

   ROLF

   Passing 5 is insane. The rest seems quite normal.

   MIKE

   The single worst call is North's double when he knew his partner holding long hearts didn't have enough values there to make a fit showing jump. This wins slightly over the lead, which is just careless. While I disagree with most of the actions taken on this hand, they could easily have worked out much better for the unlucky north/south pair.

   [I don't agree with this reasoning. North has a nearly 100% set of 5x, since he knows that partner will lead the K. To say that North should save because he thinks 5x might make, therefore, is surely wrong. North should only bid on to make, not to save. --Jeff]

   JEFF

   2. That's a blunder. Everything else was at worst a misjudgment.

   CONSENSUS

   2: 4; Double: 3; Pass: 1

   ---

3. Matchpoints, none vul, you hold  --- K KJ10xx KJ1098xx

   RHO opens 1, alerted and explained as 15-17 balanced. Your methods are
   1 = reds or blacks
   1N = majors or minors
   2 = rounds or pointeds
   other = "standard"

   ---

   ADAM

   Anything could be right. I'll try 1N, and guess later - perhaps I'll know more.

   ALAN

   5. I'll revert to the bid I would have made when I was much younger. Even if partner's hand is right for this slam - and I full well recognize it could be, I doubt if I will ever have a chance to communicate this hand. So let's watch them guess at the 5 level.

   CURT

   5, and let them guess.

   KENT

   I bid 1N and bid clubs once over any simple call.

   DAVID

   4. Depending on how the auction continues, I will decide if I want to bring diamonds back into the picture with a 4NT call over their 4M. [After 4, pass, pass, he passes.]

   ROLF

   I will bid 3 followed by 4NT.

   MIKE

   These are pretty awful methods. I bid 3, my only natural club bid. If I get another chance, I'm going to make an unusual 4NT. Note only 3 rather than 4 or 5. I want to make it easier for the opponents to find a bid.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   5

   CONSENSUS

   none

   WINNING ACTION

   4. Partner is 4-1 in the minors, but LHO is 6-4 in the majors. If he can bid 4, he'll do it, and that goes down on the 5-0 break. 4, however, will probably make, and with room, they'll find it. Saving at the 5-level in clubs nets -300, in diamonds -100.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   I think I'd bid 5 again. It puts a lot of pressure on the opponents. If they bid 5 over 5, they are probably in for a nasty surprise. If they double, I have a secret weapon. But I'm still "young." I think 5 is a better bid at IMPs; you know it's not getting destroyed, and it is the best chance for a plus score. I know nothing about matchpoints, so I'll stop here.

   ---

4. IMPs, unfavorable

   	A1062 x Qxx AKJxx
   	KQ984 xxx Jxx xx

   CHO	RHO	YOU	LHO
   1	Dbl	1	2
   3	4	Pass	Pass
   4	Dbl	All Pass

   T1: 2-x-Q-x...much thought by RHO
   T2: A-x-x-...over to you

   ---

   ADAM

   Too tough! If RHO's 46 in the majors he could always have beaten me off the top so long as he could get his partner to give him the right ruff. I'm going to cater to it anyway, since he can't have much of a double otherwise, even though we did stop below game.

   I'm not going to read too much into RHO's huddle. He must realize I'm cold on most hands if I guess the play, but he could easily spend a while looking for some holding where he can beat me by force.

   Ruff with the 10, 2 to the 9, to the A.

   If spades were 3-1 (and I didn't lose to the J!) then I cash the A. If the Q doesn't fall I have a guess left. I can play RHO for  Jxx AKQxxx AK Qx or  Jxx AKQxxx Axx x

   The first hand looks more like a double of 4, and for that matter a double of 1, but it would give LHO  x xxx T9xx xxxxx, not much of a 2 bid!

   I'll play RHO for the second hand by drawing the last trump and taking a second round club hook. If I'm wrong and he has two clubs the second one might not be the queen!

   If spades were 4-0 I'm playing RHO for 4630 so I'll draw trump and take a first round club hook.

   KENT

   [Play RHO for Ax or Kx in diamonds]

   DAVID

   [variation on Adam's line]

   ROLF

   [variation on Kent's line]

   WINNING ACTION

   Adam's line. RHO had  Jxx AKQxxx K109 x.

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   Kent's line

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   Neither of the opponents had their bids. That's not a takeout double of 1, and Axxx and out is not a 2 bid. Do you trust LHO to have A10xxx or RHO to be short in clubs? Shrug. This is probably the hardest sort of brige problem: you have to take inference from opponents who've done something strange.

   ---

5. IMPs, vul 1-2-4. Opening lead is a low heart to the King.

   	875 x KJxx Jxxxx
   	AQ964 Ax AQxx Qx

   ---

   ADAM

   I ruff a heart and run the 8.

   CURT

   cash A, ruff a heart, and lead a trump off the table, hooking deep if LHO dropped an honor on 1st round.

   KENT

   win, ruff a heart, run the 5, playing rho for 2 or 3 spade honors. Seems to be about 50%.

   DAVID

   Cash A, and then ruff heart to lead trump.

   ROLF

   Looks like a safety play. Ace, Ace and if LHO plays ten or jack very smoothly I need to know who he is.

   MIKE

   Ruff a loser and hook a trump. Seems too obvious to be the expert line of play. [Mike knew the hand. --Jeff]

   JEFF AT THE TABLE

   David's line

   WINNING ACTION

   Mike's line. When RHO won the K, he continued with three rounds of clubs, giving partner a trump promotion. Ooops.

   JEFF UPON REFLECTION

   ouch. No one who didn't know the hand would have made it, most likely. The player at the other table took my line, too. (He has about 15,000 monsterpoints.)

   What's the real right line of play...I think running the 8 is best. It offers enough of an improvement over the straight finesse that I think the danger of a ruff is smaller. The straight finesse is better than cashing the Ace, because the gain for the latter is so rare.

   Running the 8 runs into some guessing games that are a bit complicated. If RHO covers, you have to guess whether he split from J10x or falsecarded from Jxx or 10xx. RHO was Grant Baze. As a result, I think leading the 5 is an improvement over leading the 8. You don't want Grant getting the idea that you have the 9 and intend to finesse it, because he'll give you that guess. Playing against a weak opponent who'll never cover without both honors, leading the 8 is slightly better; you avoid a possible diamond ruff later in the hand in some cases.

   (Ed Davis suggests that no one will cover the 8 from dummy. What if partner had Q10 doubleton? But who'd lead the 8 towards AK932? I guess it matters a lot more if the AQ9 are in the open hand.)

   ---

6. IMPs, both white

   	10x A10942 Axx Q87
   	Q9xx --- K AKJ106542

   RHO	You	LHO	CHO
   3	5	Pass	5
   Pass	6	All pass

   a) do you agree with the bidding?
   

   ---

   ADAM

   What's not to agree with? This will be easier after the ACBL bans preempts, or limits them to one per session. I'll bet that when they do they don't specify whether it's one per player or one per partnership!

   ALAN

   Yes, I guess. Difficult to dispute the bidding.

   KENT

   Sure.

   DAVID

   How can I agree with a bidding sequence that gets you to a slam off two top losers?

   ROLF

   Yes.

   MIKE

   5 is a little rich, but what else? 5 is automatic.

   JEFF

   seems normal, although an auction that gets to a nearly no-play slam is hard to love.

   ---

   b) Opening lead is the Q. Plan the play.

   ---

   ADAM

   Ruff, cash the K, and play a trump to the Q. Then ruff out the diamonds, extract RHO's last trump if he has one, and lead a low spade. I'll make any time RHO has a stiff A or K and no club void or diamond doubleton.

   This is the best writeup of the best play. It picks up many distributions, the most common of which is 1732. Of course, you hope RHO has stiff K, not ace. That gives LHO a problem...does he want to endplay partner or just give up a trick outright! In real life, the preemptor had  A KJ8xxx Jxxxx x.