Post Mortem Decision

Playing in the Mixed Pairs, I have a bidding decision and a post-mortem decision. At unfavorable vulnerability, I deal myself
 S:843 H:J42 D:K763 C:Q76
The bidding proceeds
MeLHOPartnerRHO
Pass2S:3H:3S:
?
It seems to me that if partner can make 4H:, she would have either doubled or bid it herself, so I make a mildly conservative pass. We don't find the optimum defense, but beat 3S: one trick.

As we get up from the table, partner asks if we can make 4H:. I answer quickly, "I don't think so," so she is pleased with our result.

She gets me thinking about the hand, and after a few more seconds I recant. The whole hand was

S: 843
H: J42
D: K763
C: Q76
S: K5
H: 93
D: Q985
C: AJ1084
S: AQJ972
H: Q6
D: J42
C: 95
S: 106
H: AK10875
D: A10
C: K32
The normal defense is to start with three rounds of spades. If declarer ruffs with the H:10 and runs all the trumps but one, this position develops:
S:
H:
D: K763
C: Q7
S:
H:
D: Q985
C: AJ10
S: 9
H:
D: J42
C: 95
S:
H: 5
D: A10
C: K32
West has not yet discarded on the penultimate trump. If he discards a diamond, declarer ruffs the diamonds good and can get to dummy with the C:Q. If West pitches a club, declarer can lead to the C:Q and duck to the now stiff ace. Trump squeezes without the count are not exactly common occurrances, but I have to admit to partner that it might be possible to make 4H: on the hand...unless East shifts to a club instead of playing the third spade. Then she could not make it.
Copyright © 2004 Jeff Goldsmith